Dear Donald: "Leave With A Big Bang"

When You Leave the Middle East, Do It with a Big Bang - Efraim Inbar

President Donald Trump plans to withdraw the US military contingent stationed in northeast Syria. This may be implemented slowly, but the US troops eventually will be brought home.

Those foreign policy decisions seem to constitute a part of a larger trend to reduce US involvement in the Middle East, a trend that began during the tenure of president Barack Obama. 

The withdrawal of American forces may have strategic merits. 

The only way to prevent further decline in American capabilities, particularly in the Middle East, is to bolster deterrence. A withdrawal from the Middle East must be accompanied by steps that reduce the general impression of a weak US going home in defeat.

The place to make a stand is regarding Iran. Obama cut a deal with Iran that only encouraged its quest for hegemony and drive for nuclear weapons, while buying time in the hope that Iran will not harass the United States. In contrast, Trump understands that the Islamic Republic of Iran is an enemy of the US and that it is determined to acquire a nuclear weapon. But his hopes for forcing Iran to change its policies under diplomatic and economic pressure, while pursuing a policy of US disengagement from the Middle East, are unlikely to be realized.

The only way to leave the Middle East with as little as possible damage to US standing and security is to leave with a big bang. Washington must instill fear in the hearts of its enemies.

Despite the significant reduction in American military capabilities, the US still has enough punch to punish regional opponents and to generate fear. The US still possesses a strong enough air force to conduct a short campaign to destroy the critical Iranian nuclear installations.

Such military action would also delay nuclear proliferation, an important goal for the US, encourage US regional allies and discourage its opponents.

Indeed, action against a nuclear-aspiring Islamist Iran would reverberate beyond the Middle East and send a clear signal to anti-American forces all over the world.

Enhanced deterrence would prevent further Iranian provocations and would buy the US time to put its house in order and get serious about being a superpower.

Efraim Inbar is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

[The Middle East Forum & Jerusalem Post]

Shifting MidEast Sands

Emerging Gulf-Israel Alignment & the Palestinian Paradigm 
- R. David Harden 

• Trends are accelerating an emerging regional alignment between the Gulf States and Israel. First, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel collectively regard Iran as an existential threat to their states. The differences with Israel over the future of Palestine are less consequential than the perception of the Iranian threat and the need for a tacit collective counter-strategy.
• Second, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are much more confident regional actors than they were in the mid-1990s. The UAE projects immense economic strength and Saudi Arabia has similar aspirations. Aside from its regional military strength, Israel has become a technology power that is attractive to global finance, investment, and talent.
• Lastly, the political and economic elites in the Gulf and Israel desire these deepening economic and technological ties and are creating conditions on the ground where their citizens are increasingly open to these opportunities.
• Israel's inability to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians and its drag of regular wars in Gaza undermines its ability to assert the nation's full potential. But this potential historic Gulf-Israel alignment fundamentally changes the geo-political paradigm for the Palestinians. The region is moving beyond a "post-1948" period where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dominated nation-state relationships in the Middle East.
• The next generation of Palestinian leadership will have to adopt a new strategy - one which will be quite uncomfortable for the old PLO guard. Freed from the dogma of the last 70 years, the Palestinians could envision a very different role for themselves in the Middle East.
  
  The writer, managing director of the Georgetown Strategy Group, was former Assistant Administrator at USAID's Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, and led the USAID Mission to the West Bank and Gaza in 2014-2016.

(The Hill)
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Screwing Iran: Proposal For Arab-Israeli Economic Cooperation

Israel Floats Proposal for Regional Cooperation, Effectively Ending the Arab Israeli Conflict 

Israel [is] promoting their “Tracks for Regional Peace” initiative that is intended to create a trade route connecting Europe with the Persian Gulf and Israel...

“Tracks for Regional Peace” is based on the planned extension of railway tracks in northern Israel, which would link Haifa’s seaport to Jordan’s rail network, which in turn will be linked with that of Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states.

The network is envisioned as creating a regional transportation system to enhance trade relations and promote peaceful coexistence.

[T]he initiative will also include a stop in Jenin, connecting the Palestinians to the broader plan.  

The initiative is said to also offer shorter, cheaper, and safer trade routes in light of regional instability threatening passageways through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.

[The Times of Israel] 

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