Rubin Dubs Gaza: 'The Suicide War'

The Suicide Strategy: Launching Losing Wars and Still Winning
-Barry Rubin, PhD

One of the most important things to understand about how the Middle East works is what I’ll call the suicide strategy. It can be described as follows:

I will start a war that I cannot win in order to create a situation where the other side wrecks my infrastructure and kills my people. Then I will lose militarily but win the battle. How? By the following means:

--I’ll kill some people on the other side and do some damage to it. Since they are weaker and less brave than I am they will give up. The longer the war, the more likely they are to look for a way out even if that involves many concessions on their part. Using terrorism against their civilians reinforces this tactic.

--By suffering, and magnifying that suffering using a generally sympathetic Western media, I will make the other side feel sorry for me and oppose their own leaders who will be portrayed as bullying, bloodthirsty, and imperialistic.

--The specter of war, suffering, and especially civilian casualties, will drive the “international community” to press my adversaries to give in, stop fighting (even if I continue it on a lower level), let me survive, and even give me benefits.

That’s how you stage a losing war but end up the winner.

[The Rubin Report]

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Why is Israel not allowed to defeat her enemies? -Ted Belman

 

Many countries condemn Israel’s attacks on Gaza. A few countries including Canada, Britain, Germany and the US support Israel’s right of self defense. With the exception of Canada, the latter go on to recommend restraint with a variety of words.

But no country encourages Israel to devastate Hamas and its rocket arsenal. When they support our right of self defense they imply that should the rockets stop, Israel should stop.

Why is Israel not allowed to defeat her enemies? Especially here where our enemy Hamas is recognized as a terrorist organization. Does anyone demand that the US stop killing al Qaeda terrorists? On what basis does the US have the right to kill terrorist who aren’t targeting the US?

After 9/11 the world accepted that the US had the right to destroy Al Qaeda and remove the Taliban from power.

Hamas started the war. Israel should have the right, and the support of the world, to finish it by defeating Hamas.
[IsraPundit]

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Over 90 Percent of Israelis Support Gaza Operation -Aaron Lerner

91% of Israelis support Israel's latest Gaza operation, while 5% do not, according to a poll conducted Thursday for Channel 10 News.
(IMRA)

 

Hamas Rocket Squads Aim at Jerusalem

Hamas rocket squads aimed at Jerusalem for the first time Friday, along with Tel Aviv. The air raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem after the start of the Jewish Sabbath. The holy city is located about 75 km. (47 miles) from Gaza. No injuries were reported. 
(AP)

 

 

Gazans Watch with Pride as Hamas Targets Jerusalem

Gazans have been watching with gleeful pride as Hamas militants fire rockets deeper than ever into Israel, targeting Jerusalem for the first time. "I never liked Hamas, but I wished I could kiss the forehead of the one who fired the rocket on Jerusalem," Saed Moaserji, 19, from Jebaliya in Gaza, said.
(AP-Fox News)

 

 

Israel's Right to Self-Defense Against Hamas -Alan M. Dershowitz

There is absolutely no comparison between the murderous war crimes being committed by Hamas and the lawful targeting of terrorists by the Israeli military.

Targeting civilians is a calculated Hamas policy designed to sow terror among the Israeli population. Hamas supporters celebrate the murder of Jewish civilians. Every rocket fired by Hamas at a non-military Israeli target is a war crime that should be universally condemned by all reasonable people.

Israel's response - targeting only terrorists and Hamas military leaders - is completely lawful and legitimate. It constitutes an act of self-defense pursuant to Article 51 of the UN Charter and universally accepted principles of international law.
Some in the media insist on describing the recent events in Gaza as "a cycle of violence," without distinguishing between the war crimes committed by Hamas and the lawful actions undertaken by Israel to protect its citizens against such war crimes. It would be as if the media described lawful police efforts to stop illegal drug-related murders as a "cycle of violence."

The international community and the media must begin to differentiate between war crimes committed by terrorists and legitimate acts of self-defense engaged in by a responsible military.
The writer is a Professor of Law at Harvard.
(Ha'aretz)
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Gaza War Continues: Relative Silence from Arab World

 

 

Israeli Zaka emergency services volunteers clean human remains from a house hit by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants killing 3 people in southern city of Kiryat Malahi on November 15

An Israeli inspects the damage in a house hit by a rocket fired by Palestinian terrorists into the southern Israeli city of Kiryat Malahi

A picture taken from the southern Israeli town of Sderot shows smoke billowing from a spot targeted by an Israeli air strike inside the Gaza strip on November 15

  Israelis take cover in a large concrete pipe used as a bomb shelter after a rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip on Kiryat Malachi

 

 

Reflections on Current Hamas-Israel Hostilities -Daniel Pipes, PhD

 

Two observations about the hostilities: 

 

(1) The old Arab-Israeli wars were military clashes, the recent ones are political clashes. The wars of 1948-49, 1967, and 1973 were life-and-death struggles for the Jewish state. But the wars of 2006, 2008-09, and now 2012 are media events in which Israeli victory on the military battlefield is foreordained and the struggle is to win public opinion. Opeds have replaced bullets, social media have replaced tanks. Will Israel prevail in arguing that its enemy initiated offensive action? Or will those enemies, Hamas or Hezbollah, convince observers that Israel is an illegitimate regime whose recourse to force is criminal? The war must be fought primarily as a media event.

(2) If Hamas knows it cannot defeat the Israel Defense Forces and will get a bloody nose for its efforts, it obviously has motives other than victory in mind. What might those be? Several come to mind:

• Test the waters in the aftermath of Barack Obama's reelection.
• Rouse public opinion against Israel and make it pay a price internationally.
• Refute accusations by Palestinian Islamic Jihad that it has abandoned "resistance."
• Remind the Palestinian Authority, as it seeks statehood at the United Nations, who controls Gaza.
• Rile up Israeli Arabs.
• Pre-empt Egyptian plans to destroy Gaza tunnels, as Cairo cannot be seen helping Israel in a time of crisis.

[National Review Online]

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Growing Ties between Egypt, Turkey May Signal New Regional Order
- Jeffrey Fleishman
   
Egypt and Turkey are forging an alliance that showcases two Islamist leaders maneuvering to reshape a Middle East gripped by political upheaval and passionate battles over how deeply the Koran should penetrate public life.
The relationship may foreshadow an emerging regional order in which the sway of the U.S. gradually fades against Islamist voices no longer contained by militaries and pro-Western autocrats.   
(Los Angeles Times)

 

 

Britain: Hamas to Blame for Gaza Crisis with Israel

Hamas "bears principal responsibility" for escalating tension in Gaza and Israel, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has said.  
(BBC News)

 

 

U.S. Senate Backs Israel's Actions in Gaza

The U.S. Senate passed a resolution expressing support for Israel's "inherent right to act in self-defense." 
(JTA)

 

 

Netanyahu: World Leaders Understand Israel's Need to Defend Itself
   
"I want to express my appreciation once again to President Obama for his unequivocal, clear support for Israel's right to defend itself. I also want to express my appreciation to the other world leaders I've had a chance to speak to in the last 24 hours: to President Hollande of France, to UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon, to EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton and to Quartet representative Tony Blair. I want to thank them for their understanding of Israel's need to defend itself, and Israel's right to defend itself."
(Prime Minister's Office)

 

 

Hamas Trying to Restore Shattered Morale - Khaled Abu Toameh

There were no signs whatsoever that Hamas was interested in a cease-fire with Israel at this stage. The assassination of Ahmed Jabari, commander of Hamas' armed wing, has hurt the Islamist movement so badly that it feels the urgent need to restore not only its lost dignity, but also the shattered morale of its members and supporters. Hamas feels that with the killing of such a senior figure, it has lost its balance of power vis-a-vis Israel, and will agree to a cease-fire only after it extracts a heavy price from Israel. Failure to do so will undermine Hamas' credibility in the eyes of many Arabs and Muslims.
(Jerusalem Post)

 

 

Time to Get Tough -Rabbi Eric H. Yoffie

The government of Israel has launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip. It is an operation that is justified, and in fact overdue. American Jews across the political spectrum should be offering their support.

It would be hard to imagine a case where Israel has been more patient than in Gaza. Sderot and the surrounding communities have been subjected to missile fire from Gaza for 11 years. With sickening regularity, rockets fall on civilian centers and hundreds of thousands of Israel's citizens flee to shelters. A single rocket aimed at an American city would likely provoke a far more drastic response than anything Israel has attempted or even contemplated.

In short, I support a real "get tough" policy in Gaza. Common sense dictates that there must be a high, ongoing price exacted for every attack originating from Gaza. Israel came into being so that Jewish children would never again have to huddle together in fear, terrorized by enemies of the Jewish people, while their parents stood by helplessly.
The writer served as president of the Union for Reform Judaism from 1996 to 2012.
(Ha'aretz)

 

 

 



Abbas' UN Chess Game

UN Vote Could Challenge Control of Airspace and Territorial Waters -Joe Lauria

The vote in the UN General Assembly this month to make the Palestinian Authority an observer state could give the PA the right over its airspace and territorial waters, which are now under Israeli control, and to press charges against Israelis before the International Criminal Court.
     
Observer state status would allow the authority to accede to treaties and join specialized UN agencies. Denis Changnon, an ICAO spokesman, said the treaty gives members full sovereign rights over airspace. The Law of the Sea Treaty would give the PA control of its national waters off Gaza, now under an Israeli naval blockade.
     
The U.S. Congress has threatened to cut off $500 million in security and economic aid to the authority if it becomes an observer state. In 1989, the Palestinians made a previous attempt to become a non-member state in the General Assembly but withdrew under U.S. pressure. 
(Wall Street Journal)


Unable to Pay Salaries, PA Pursues Statehood -Ben Lynfield

While Palestinians prepare for an upgrade in status at the UN, the PA has been failing to pay on time its 170,000 employees, whose salaries directly support about a quarter of the West Bank and Gaza population.
    
In retaliation for the UN move, Israel is considering suspending transfers of tax revenues it collects on behalf of the PA, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said. ''If they breach blatantly the whole framework of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, then there is no way back and Israel will do whatever it sees fit. He who burns bridges should not complain about not being able to get to the other side."  
(Christian Science Monitor)


Israel Will Consider Canceling Oslo Accords If Palestinians Gain Upgraded UN Status
-Barak Ravid

Israel will consider partial or full cancellation of the Oslo Accords if the UN General Assembly adopts a resolution to upgrade the status of Palestine to that of a non-member observer state on Nov. 29.

The head of the Israel Foreign Ministry division for international organizations, Amb. Roni Leshno-Yaar, told Israeli embassies around the world: "The Palestinian resolution is a clear violation of the fundamental principle of negotiation and is a violation of the agreements between Israel and the PLO. The adoption of the resolution will give Israel the right to re-evaluate previous agreements with the PLO and consider canceling them partially or completely, and would make progress in the peace process more difficult in the future."
 (Ha'aretz)


"Palestine" Does Not Qualify as a "State" -Rick Richman

• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas demands recognition of a Palestinian state while refusing to recognize a Jewish one; and he now seeks admission to the UN as a non-member state even though "Palestine" meets none of the four requirements under international law for a state.
• Under the Montevideo Convention (1933), a state "should possess the following qualifications": (1) a defined territory; (2) a government; (3) capacity to enter into relations with the other states; and (4) a permanent population.
• "Palestine" lacks a "defined territory." To have a defined territory, "Palestine" has to negotiate it with Israel; until then, its self-definition of territory is not a "defined territory" under the law; it is simply a negotiating position.
• "Palestine" lacks a "government." It is ruled half by a terrorist group and half by an unelected administrative entity whose last election occurred nearly seven years ago. The government of each half considers the government of the other half illegitimate, and both are correct.
• "Palestine" lacks the "capacity to enter into relations with the other states." Abbas has no capacity to bind the rulers of Gaza, nor even to implement his own commitments in the area in which he rules, with no capacity to bind "Palestine" to anything.
  
• "Palestine" lacks a "permanent population." Most of the population considers themselves perennial "refugees" who seek to "return" to a different state, not to be permanent residents where they currently live.

(Commentary)
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Gaza War Dubbed "Pillar of Defense"

Rocket launched from Rafah, Gaza towards Tel Aviv

 

 

The battle for the South has begun -Yaakov Lappin

Nearly four years after Operation Cast Lead, a new battle to restore security for the South has begun. The deterrence levels gained by Israel in the 2009 operation have run out, in great part due to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

With Hamas feeling confident over the ascendancy of its fellow Islamists in the region, and the emergence of a new patron in Cairo, it and Islamic Jihad chipped away at Israeli deterrence, attempting to set new rules by preventing the IDF from carrying out vital security missions on the Gaza border.

As it built up its rocket arsenals, Hamas and the other factions responded to Israel’s measures to secure the border with more and more indiscriminate rocket barrages on the long-suffering South, filling the lives of hundreds of thousands of civilians with dread, trauma and disruption.

Hamas has overplayed its hand. It mistook Israeli restraint for weakness.

The current operation underway in Gaza is based on a flexible approach. It began by sending a strong message to Hamas: that it must choose between the survival of its members and the continued firing of rockets at southern cities, towns and villages. At the same time, Israel has left Hamas with an exit. Should it decrease the rocket attacks, the IDF will scale back its operation.

The aim is not to topple the Hamas regime – at least not at this stage.

Israel once again has proved that its intelligence capabilities in Gaza are superb not only by targeting the head of the rocket- launching machine, Ahmed Jabari, but also by removing most of Hamas’s long-range underground rocket launchers in the first wave of air strikes.

The ball is now in Hamas’s court. If it chooses to continue to lash out at Israel’s civilians, it could find itself face to face with a ground offensive, a development that would take the current operation to a new level.

Operation Pillar of Defense is also a message to the wider region, now filling up with Islamist forces: Israel will not be deterred from taking basic steps to defend its civilians.
[Jerusalem Post]


Operation Pillar of Defense: What You Need to Know -Simon Plosker

The current attacks began on Saturday night (Nov.10) when Palestinian terrorists fired an anti-tank missile at an army jeep traveling on the Israeli side of the border fence. Four IDF soldiers were injured. Since then, over 120 rockets have been fired at Israeli civilians.
[HonestReporting.com]


Booms heard in Tel Aviv area following warning siren -Yaakov Lappin

Two booms were heard following an air raid siren in Tel Aviv, just an hour after a rocket from the Gaza Strip exploded in an open field outside of Rishon Lezion. There were no reports of injuries in either strike.

The attacks mark the first time the center of the country was hit [in] renewed violence from the Gaza Strip. The incident was also the first time that a real siren was sounded in Tel Aviv since the Gulf War in the early 1990s.

[T]hree people were killed and two others injured in a direct hit on a Kiryat Malachi apartment building. Hours later, a rocket fired into the Eshkol region injured three IDF soldiers, two moderately.
MDA paramedics treated five wounded people at the site of the Kiryat Malachi attack, in which a rocket hit a four-story building. Three people were pronounced dead on the scene and two others were suffering moderate injuries, including a baby.

A house in Ashdod and a school in Ofakim near Beersheba also sustained damage from rockets on Thursday morning. Rockets also landed in the Eshkol Regional Council area, Gan Yavne and Ashkelon.

The IDF Spokesman's Office stated the Iron Dome rocket defense system has successfully intercepted more than 80 rockets since the operation began.
[Jerusalem Post]


IDF Restores Deterrence -Ron Ben-Yishai

The Israeli government and security establishment concluded that the terror groups in Gaza are not deterred and that the threat on the residents of Israel is growing. Therefore, Israel decided to restore its deterrence through a series of painful attacks on top military figures and assets belonging to all the terror organizations in Gaza, with an emphasis on Hamas. Only a drastic operation that would exact a heavy toll from the terror groups would restore the diminished deterrence.

However, Israel does not want to give the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt an excuse to violate the 1979 peace agreement.
   
Israel's goal is to achieve a long-term ceasefire with Egyptian mediation, so that all of Gaza's armed groups would be committed to it. The IDF will continue to pound Gaza until such a truce is reached.
(Ynet News)


Pallywood Returns to Gaza -Simon Plosker

What happens when the cameras turn up at the scene of an airstrike in Gaza and there simply aren’t enough Palestinian dead and injured to produce dramatic footage that can be used against Israel in the international media? We’ve seen it before. Palestinians who appear to be injured or even dead for the benefit of the TV cameras turn out to be nothing of the sort once they are no longer the focus.
This is all the more so in Gaza, where Palestinian stringers are often filming in the absence of international news crews.

The example below is taken from a BBC interview on the targeted killing of Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari. During the interview (full version here), footage from Gaza is shown. At 2:11 mins in, a Palestinian in a beige jacket and black T-shirt, presumably injured in the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike, is picked up and taken away. Yet at 2:44 mins, the same Palestinian has staged a remarkable recovery.

We’ve taken the relevant footage so that you can see for yourself: 



Welcome [back] to Pallywood!
[HonestReporting.com]
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Is The Petraeus Affair Related To The Benghazi Debacle?

General Petraeus and his biographer/lover Paula Broadwell

Congress’ questions for Petraeus will have to wait -Shaun Waterman

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have questions for former CIA Director David H. Petraeus about the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, his recently disclosed extramarital affair and other issues — but their queries will have to wait for a later date.

Acting CIA Director Michael Morrell will testify Thursday in closed-door hearings of the Senate and House intelligence committees instead of Mr. Petraeus, who resigned abruptly last week after admitting he had an extramarital affair.
[The Washington Times]
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The Convenient Resignation of General Petraeus -Robert Spencer

Petraeus’s statement comes just after the House Foreign Affairs Committee asked him to testify in its investigation of the Benghazi jihad attack and subsequent Obama administration cover-up.

[I]f it wasn’t Petraeus who ordered that no help be given to Ambassador Chris Stevens and his staff when jihadists attacked the embassy, the order would have had to come from someone who outranked even the director of the agency. Thus Petraeus’s denial that the order had come from him pointed the finger directly at Barack Obama. And while the mainstream media buried that fact before the election, the House Foreign Affairs Committee would have asked Petraeus just who did give the order.

[A] coincidence that Petraeus resigned on the very same day that Fox News reported that the Foreign Affairs Committee was planning to call him to testify at their Benghazi hearings...[?]

The convenience of the timing for Barack Obama cannot be overlooked. Now Petraeus will not be testifying at the House hearings, and so, barring a subpoena, the primary witness to who ordered the CIA to stand down in Benghazi has been removed.
[FrontPageMag.com]
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After Rockets Rain on Israel, IDF Takes Out Hamas Sleazeball

This jihadi sleazeball is history

 

 

 

 



IDF Kills Hamas's 'Chief of Staff', Launches Major Operation -Gil Ronen

 

The IAF fired a missile at a car in Gaza, killing the commander of Hamas's "military" terror wing, Ahmed Jaabari [pictured]. Israel's TV Channel 2 says his son was also killed.

 

Hamas responded by saying that it was now in a state of "open war" with Israel with no date set for its end.

 

The IAF reportedly also struck targets in Khan Younes and Rafiah. Channel 2 said that the IAF has been striking launch silos for Hamas's longer-range Fajr rockets, which can hit central Israel, in order to preclude their use.

 

The IDF has begun a wide scale operation, which has been named "Amud Anan," a phrase that refers to the column-shaped cloud that led the Israelites in Sinai during the Exodus from Egypt. The official English name is Pillar of Defense.

 

Cairo denounced what it said was "Israeli aggression in Gaza" and Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi held consultations with senior officials to decide on his course of action. Hamas has been calling upon Morsi to show that he is not like his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak. Hamas is saying that the "new Egypt" under Morsi must withdraw from the Camp David accords with Israel and expel Israel's ambassador in Cairo.

 

Among other exploits, Ahmed Jaabari, 52, was personally responsible for the abduction and holding of IDF Sgt. Gilad Shalit. Raed al-Atar was in charge of Hamas's smuggling tunnels. He was released from jail in Israeli in 1995.

 

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak appear to have purposely diverted attention away from Gaza by visiting northern Israel and publicly discussing the Syrian threat Wednesday, in order to make it easier to catch the Hamas off guard.

 

The IDF Spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, announced on his Facebook page that "A harsh blow has landed upon Hamas's command and control array, as the IDF hit Ahmed Jaabari, the head of the military wing of Hamas in Gaza, who headed the organization and dealt directly with carrying out terror attacks against Israel.

 

"We are at the beginning of a wide scale attack, in view of the unbearable situation of the residents of the South," he added.

[Arutz Sheva]

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Israel Launches Major Military Offensive -Barry Rubin, PhD

For the first time in four years, Israel carried out a targeted assassination, killing Ahmad Jabari. 

Israeli officials said other Hamas leaders involved in terrorism will also be targeted. The other top priority is to destroy the launching sites for Hamas’s longer-range missiles, with a 25 mile range, that can reach cities in southern Israel.

The Israeli military command has not ruled out the possibility of a ground attack as well.
[T]he installation of its ally, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, in power next door has given Hamas much more confidence. Hamas openly came out [recently] as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and openly initiated attacks on Israel rather than merely permitting smaller groups--Islamic JIhad, Salafist groups, and al-Qaida affiliates--to do so.

The Egyptian regime tried but apparently failed to organize a ceasefire. The timing of a confrontation now is inconvenient for the new government which is seeking to consolidate power...

In future, though, [Egypt] is more likely to back up Hamas either indirectly--letting money, weapons, terrorists, and Egyptian volunteer fighters- cross from Egypt into Gaza--or even through direct military intervention.

Neither side takes U.S. policy very seriously. The Egyptians and Hamas know that President Barack Obama will not take Israel's side to the same extent as previous presidents while Israel knows it cannot depend on an energetic U.S. pressure on Egypt to tamp down on the terrorists.
[The Rubin Report]
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Imagine: Peace in the MidEast

Lennon Memorial in Central Park, New York City

A Strategy for Peace with the Palestinians -Max Singer

Peace is not possible now because Palestinian society is not yet ready to give up the goal that it has shared with the Arab world since before Israel was created:
to prevent the establishment of and eliminate the existence of a Jewish country.

This can be known from the statements and actions of Palestinian leaders. It is confirmed by the Palestinian leadership's denial of Jewish history in the land and the systematic teaching of hatred of both Israel and the Jewish people in 
Palestinian schools and official propaganda.

The current political environment in the Arab-Muslim world is too hostile towards Israel and the West for there to be any hope of a decisive change in Palestinian opinion at this time. It is only when the Arab-Muslim debate about hostility to the non-Muslim world changes that the Palestinians will be able to consider giving up their goal of eliminating Israel. Eventually, there will be Palestinians who lead their people away from war.
    
The most effective way for Israel to pursue peace is to act to convince Palestinians that Israel wholeheartedly believes in its own rights to the land, has an unshakeable determination to protect itself against all challenges, and is growing in power. When more of the Arab world is ready to give up its effort to defeat the West and the goal of removing the Jewish state from "Muslim territory," there will be opportunities to pursue peace. 
The writer is a Senior Fellow and Trustee Emeritus at the Hudson Institute.
(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)
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Free Israeli App Helps US with Hurricane Gas Shortages

Israeli App "Waze" Helped FEMA Deliver the Gas after Hurricane Sandy
-Ryan Kim
   
With gas shortages rampant following Hurricane Sandy, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the White House turned to an Israeli invention, the crowd-sourced navigation app Waze, to gather data on where to send gasoline trucks.
   
Di-Ann Eisnor, Waze's VP of platforms and partnerships, said the government called up Waze Friday and asked for help.
   
Within an hour, Waze had a simple system up and running that allowed users who visited a gas station to get a system message that allowed them to report the conditions there.
    
The users were able to leave a chit-chat message explaining if there was gas available, how the lines were and how long the wait was.
    
The Waze app also displayed pins on its maps for local gas stations that were open.
   
After opening up a line of communication with New Jersey residents, Waze expanded its reporting program Saturday to Staten Island and Long Island.
(Gigaom)


Beat the Traffic with Waze -David Shamah

Israeli startup Waze has developed the technology to truly revolutionize driving, allowing drivers to shave precious minutes off their commutes, providing real time updates of traffic conditions, and even generating real-time maps - all for free. 
(Israel21c)

Obama's Second Term: What the MidEast Can Look "Forward" To

Obama Faces a Transformed Middle East -Herb Keinon

A lot has changed in the four years since Obama, soon after his inauguration in 2009, set Palestinian-Israeli peace as his administration's top Middle East priority. First of all, today's Middle East looks nothing like it did then. With Syria imploding, Egypt going through a deep change, Iran continuing its relentless march toward nuclear arms and political Islam on the rise throughout the region, reaching a Palestinian-Israeli agreement does not hold the same urgency. A host of other issues in the region are more pressing.

In his victory speech, Obama made almost no mention of foreign affairs. For him to successfully push his domestic agenda, he is still going to need political allies, even during a second term. Even if he wanted to do so, he would not be able to ignore the massive support for Israel that remains in Congress. Doing so could make it difficult for him to push forward his domestic priorities.
(Jerusalem Post)


Obama Re-election Signals New Phase in Syria War -Dale Gavlak & David Stringer

Western efforts to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad shifted dramatically, with Britain announcing it will deal directly with rebel military leaders and Turkey saying NATO members have discussed using Patriot missiles to protect a safe zone inside Syria.

With Barack Obama's re-election, U.S. allies are anticipating a new, bolder approach from the American president to end the civil war. British Prime Minister David Cameron, visiting a camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan, said the U.S., Britain and other allies should do more to "shape the opposition" into a coherent force. Cameron said he would press Obama at the first opportunity to drive forward efforts to end the Syrian conflict.
(AP)


After the Election, Obama Faces Iran -Arshad Mohammed

Martin Indyk, vice president of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, said 2013 could be a decisive year on Iran. "It's going to be very high on the agenda," Indyk said. "Preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons is a critical imperative for bolstering the nonproliferation regime."

"My read of Obama is that he, essentially, wants to turn away from the Middle East and focus on Asia," said Indyk, saying Obama was unlikely to make a fresh run at Israeli-Palestinian peace, nor to make great efforts to shape the outcome in Syria or to deeply engage Islamist governments.
(Reuters)
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UPDATES: 


Obama Faces Second-Term Challenges -Jeremy Bowen  

• The Middle East is in a process of change that will take a generation.   
• President Obama shows every sign of realizing America's limits. You get the feeling that President Obama would love to be able to turn his back on the Middle East. The trouble with that is the Middle East is too important to be left alone.
• If by next summer the U.S. and its key allies still believe that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, despite talks and sanctions, President Obama will have to decide whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear sites, or to give Israel a green light to go to war.
• Barack Obama will not want his presidency to be remembered as the time when Iran became a nuclear weapons power. If Iran rebuffed an offer that President Obama considered fair, and if he felt Iran was going to go nuclear, there is every chance that he would order an attack.
• Compliant, reliable, authoritarian allies have been deposed. And a new generation that sees America as an adversary, not a friend, is being empowered.

(BBC News)
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Obama Puts Trust in Negotiations -Barry Rubin

It is possible that Iran would use the negotiations to wrest concessions from the West without giving anything in return and to stall for time as it steadily advances toward its nuclear goal. As this happens, Israeli concerns will be dismissed by the administration and the mass media. The kinder ones will say that Israel is being unnecessarily concerned; the more hostile that it is acting as a warmonger when everything can be settled through compromise.

For its part, the Obama Administration is desperate to get a deal with Iran and quick to believe that the Tehran regime is being reasonable. The White House’s own ideology, arrogance, and naivete make it the perfect victim for an Iranian con job. It is the same pattern we’ve repeatedly seen in which supposedly economic considerations dominate ideology and everyone—including the Muslim Brotherhood, the PLO, and the Taliban—wants to be moderate and peaceful if only given the proper chance to do so.

Part of the Obama Administration sales pitch for U.S.-Iran talks is that Obama really will get tough if Iran stalls, uses the time to continue developing nuclear weapons, or cheats. People in positions of authority or influence—including in the mass media as well as governments—claim Obama will attack Iran if it plays him false. The administration’s patience is wearing thin we are told, it won’t let the Iranian regime make it look like a fool.

For my part, I don’t believe that Obama would ever initiate military action against Iran and that he will also do everything possible to prevent Israel from doing so, which means that Israel would also not launch an attack.

I suggest the most likely possibilities are as follows:

If Iran’s leaders find the pressures of sanctions so tough, the threat to the regime’s survival so great, and their greed for remaining in power and making more money so big they will then make a deal. We will be told that Obama is a great statesman who has achieved a big success and rightly won the Nobel Peace Prize. He will indeed have avoided Iran going nuclear, at least for a while.

Or Iran will use the chance to talk endlessly and build nuclear weapons while the administration’s hints of dire retribution will prove to be bluffs as the leaders in Tehran expect. The year 2013 will pass without any deal. During Obama’s second term Iran will either get nuclear weapons or have everything needed to do so but will not actually assemble them for a while. U.S. policy will then accept that situation and shift to a containment strategy.

I’d bet on the latter outcome.

But we are now going to see a campaign insisting that a peaceful resolution with Iran is at hand and ridiculing anyone who has doubts about this happy ending.
[The Rubin Report]

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Fasten your seatbelts, we're in for a rough ride -David M. Weinberg

In his second term, Obama will be looking to fashion a long-term legacy. With Congress still at a deadlock, he will have difficulty aggressively advancing his domestic agenda. That leaves foreign affairs and defense policy, where he has a freer hand.

On matters that directly affect Israel, remember that Obama is deeply committed to three things: global nuclear disarmament, rapprochement with the Islamic world, and Palestinian statehood. I believe that he will forcefully act to progress on all three fronts, and this could bring him into conflict with Israel.

Every Israeli knows that Iran has clandestinely crossed every “red line” set by the West over the past 20 years – putting nuclear plants online, building heavy water facilities, refining uranium, working on explosive triggers and warheads, and generally breaching all its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty – and has gotten away with it. So any deal that scales back sanctions and allows Iran to keep operating its advanced nuclear development facilities, even at a low-level, is a fatal bargain.

Obama’s paramount commitment to rapprochement with the Islamic world, I suspect, will overtake his declarations of opposition to Iran. He never was going to, and never will, confront Iran militarily.
[Israel Insider]
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Saudi's Trash Islam's History

Three of the world’s oldest mosques are about to be destroyed in Saudi Arabia

The Saudis Are Bulldozing Islam's Heritage -Damian Thompson

The long-cherished ambition of Saudi Arabia's ruling Wahhabi sect to smash up the ancient buildings of Mecca and Medina is nearing fruition. In Mecca, the house of one of Mohammed's wives has been demolished to make space for public lavatories. As for Medina, a recent article by Jerome Taylor in the Independent revealed a megalomaniac plan to pull down three 7th-century mosques. Taylor added: "Ten years ago, a mosque which belonged to the Prophet's grandson was dynamited."
   
But what sticks in the craw is the hypocrisy of Muslims who throw a fit if Israeli archaeologists carry out non-intrusive work near the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, "Islam's third holiest place," as we're constantly reminded. Such anger would be more convincing if the first and second holy sites weren't being ploughed up by a police state. 
(Telegraph-UK)


Medina: Saudis Take a Bulldozer to Islam's History
-Jerome Taylor 

[C]oncerns have been raised that the development will see key historic sites bulldozed. Anger is already growing at the kingdom’s apparent disdain for preserving the historical and archaeological heritage of the country’s holiest city, Mecca.  (Independent-UK)
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Obama's Secret Iran Talks

 

Secret Talks between the U.S. and Iran -Alex Fishman
   
Valerie Jarrett [pictured], an Iranian-born Chicago lawyer and a senior advisor to President Obama, is the key player behind the secret talks between the U.S. and Iran, Yediot Ahronot reported.
     
Last month, the New York Times reported that the U.S. government is engaged in secret talks with Iran aimed at establishing a direct line of communication once the U.S. presidential elections are over.
    
Israel was originally surprised to learn of the talks, but state officials now reveal that they were going on for several months. The talks were initiated and led by Jarrett, and took place in Bahrain.
(Ynet News)


Questions about U.S.-Iran Negotiations -Jonathan S. Tobin 

The Iranians have made fools of every Western negotiator they've dealt with in the past decade because of their tenacity and willingness to use the charade of talks as a way to run out the clock while their scientists get closer to achieving the country's nuclear ambition.
      
So long as the Iranian regime believes they can outlast and out-talk the West on this issue, it's doubtful they can be compelled to sign a deal that would eliminate the nuclear threat - or to observe it even if they did. 
(Commentary)


All Options Must (Really) Be on the Table -Emily B. Landau

[C]redible military threats are essential to this dynamic, and are still missing. Without massive economic and military pressure, it is hard to imagine Iran would ever consider a deal.
(Fathom Journal-BICOM)
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Abbas Holds Out Carrot...Then Takes it Back

A Gaza demonstration against Abbas, following his remarks on refugees.
Some have speculated that Abbas is trying to interfere with Israeli elections.

Palestinian Leader Violates Taboo on Refugees -Amy Teibel

The Palestinian president has set off a strident debate by shattering a once-inviolable taboo, publicly suggesting his people would have to relinquish claims to ancestral homes in Israel. In an interview on Israeli TV, Mahmoud Abbas said that while he would like to visit his birthplace of Safed - now a town in northern Israel - he doesn't claim the right to live there. His adviser, Nimr Hammad, said Abbas was being "realistic." "He knows he can't bring back 5.5 million Palestinian refugees to Israel," Hammad said.
(AP)


No Change in the Palestinian Position on the Right of Return
-Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi 

• Claims that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas - in an interview with Israel's Channel 2 TV on Nov. 2, 2012 - had apparently relinquished the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees are baseless in light of the clarifications provided by Abbas himself, in which he called the return a "sacred right" and affirmed his full commitment to the basic Palestinian positions.
• The gap between Israel and the Palestinians on the refugee question is unbridgeable. For the Palestinians, the right of return is a taboo matter that cannot be questioned. The formulation "a just and agreed solution based on Resolution 194" does not imply a readiness for a possible Palestinian compromise. "Agreed" means compelling Israel to agree to implement the Palestinian demands for "justice."
• The PLO and the Palestinian Authority (as well as the Hamas government in Gaza) continue to cultivate in Palestinian society the idea of the refugees' return, to prevent any possibility of resettling the refugees outside of the camps, and to maintain the role of UNRWA as a symbolic and practical manifestation of the demand for return.
• According to the Palestinian consensus, the nonimplementation of the right of return will leave the doors of the conflict with Israel open, implying a justification to continue the armed struggle even after a Palestinian state is created. For the Palestinians, the refugee problem is a trump card with which they can keep confronting Israel.
• The Palestinian arena's harsh reactions to Abbas' remarks indicate the inability of the Palestinian leadership, even if it so desired, to present a compromise position on the refugee issue.

The writer, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is a co-founder of the Orient Research Group Ltd. and a former advisor to the Policy Planning Division of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)



Abbas' Pandora Box -Khaled Abu Toameh
 
PA President Mahmoud Abbas' remarks that he does not want to return to his home town of Safed led to strong condemnations not only from Hamas and radical Palestinian groups, but also from some of his political allies in the PLO. The widespread denunciations show that the Palestinians remain strongly opposed to any concessions to Israel with regard to the "right of return" for refugees to their former homes inside Israel.
   
But Abbas himself is partially responsible for the fact that Palestinians have been radicalized to a point where they see any talk of compromise with Israel as an act of "high treason." Over the years, Abbas has repeatedly declared that the "right of return" is a sacred issue and a "red line." 
(Jerusalem Post)
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Abbas says he did not give up on the right of return

Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas has denied giving up on the refugees' right of return, saying remarks about not returning to his home town, which is now in Israel, was a "personal position."

"I have never and will never give up the right of return," he told Egypt's Al-Hayatt Egyptian satellite channel late on Saturday, according to a transcript.
(AFP)
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Mysterious Sudan Strike

Sudanese President and sleazeball war criminal Omar

 

Sudan 'terrorist state', says Israel official after raid

 

Sudan is a "dangerous terrorist state," a top Israeli defence official said after the Sudanese government accused Israel of carrying out a deadly missile strike on a military factory in Khartoum.

Sudanese officials say the attack on the Yarmouk facility south of Khartoum, which took place at around midnight on Tuesday and killed two people, was carried out by four radar-evading aircraft.
Israel, which has long accused Khartoum of serving as a base of support for militants from the Islamist Hamas movement which rules Gaza, has refused all comment on the claim.

"Sudan is a dangerous terrorist state. To know exactly what happened (there), it will take some time to understand," Amos Gilad told Israel's army radio.  Asked directly whether Israel was involved in the attack, Gilad, who serves as director of policy and political-military affairs at the defence ministry, refused to reply directly.

The Israeli air force, he noted, was "one of the most prestigious in the world, a fact which had been proved many times in the past. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is regarded a war criminal. Sudan has also served as the operational base for (the late Al-Qaeda chief Osama) bin Laden," Gilad pointed out.

"The regime is supported by Iran and it serves as a route for the transfer, via Egyptian territory, of Iranian weapons to Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists," he told the radio.

Khartoum has said it found evidence of Israeli involvement among the remnants of the explosives at the blast site. "We think Israel did the bombing," Culture and Information Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman said, adding: "We reserve the right to react at a place and time we choose."

It is not the first mystery blast which has prompted allegations of Israeli involvement.

[France 24]

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UPDATE:

Sudan Strike - A Blow to Iran -Yaakov Lappin

Sudan has been a central transit point for Iranian arms headed to Gaza. Israel has remained officially silent, but if Israeli planes did fly 1,900 km. to the Sudanese capital to bomb a rocket factory, the move could represent a major blow to Iranian efforts to smuggle arms into Gaza, and contain a demonstrable threat to Tehran of what may occur if it continues to develop nuclear weapons.

With Iran's nuclear sites roughly the same distance from Israel, an air strike in Khartoum would demonstrate Israel's long-range capabilities, and make the military threat on the table that much more tangible.
(Jerusalem Post)
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