Their own worst nightmare -Daniel PipesWith the publication of [the] National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) a consensus has emerged that war with Iran "now appears to be off the agenda." Indeed, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claimed the report dealt a "fatal blow" to the country's enemies, while his foreign ministry spokesman called it a "great victory."
I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out.
I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out.
[T]here are three possible American responses to the Iranian nuclear buildup: Convince the Iranians of their own accord to stop the nuclear weapons program. Stop it for them through military intervention (which need not be a direct strike against the nuclear infrastructure but could be more indirect, such as an embargo on refined petrochemicals entering the country). Permit it to culminate in Iran's acquiring a nuclear bomb.
In short, with Option #1 undermined and Option #3 unacceptable, Option #2 - war carried out by either US or Israeli forces - becomes more probable.
Thus have short-sighted, small-minded, blatantly partisan intelligence bureaucrats, trying to hide unpleasant realities, helped engineer their own nightmare.
[Jerusalem Post]
In short, with Option #1 undermined and Option #3 unacceptable, Option #2 - war carried out by either US or Israeli forces - becomes more probable.
Thus have short-sighted, small-minded, blatantly partisan intelligence bureaucrats, trying to hide unpleasant realities, helped engineer their own nightmare.
[Jerusalem Post]
1 comment:
Remarkably, I find myself in disagreement with Mr. Pipes again. He almost makes a point, if in fact his 3 scenarios were the only 3 options possible, but of course in the not black and white, but grey world of relaity, there are many possibilities. Also, he equates embargo with war, which neither Iran, the UN, or other diplomats necessarily agree with. We had an embargo with Iraq, that turned out to have been quite effective, much to the consternation of Bush and the other 2 or 3 that still believe there are WMD to be found in Iraq. I do not believe this should be taken off the table, and I do not believe that now Iran has shown itself to be a good world neighbor. Any country that has called for another to be wiped off the map is a danger, and where a nuke program ended one day, it can start another quite easily, especially with all the oil money flowing into Iran, and all the rogue nations out there with the technology (North Korea and a newly assertive Russia come to mine first).
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