Sunday, June 21, 2009

Iran: how it will end


Protests aren't enough to topple the Islamic Republic -Michael Rubin

Street protests in Iran are important but are themselves not enough to force change. The supreme leader will not be swayed because he considers himself accountable to God, not to the people. Indeed, even the Islamic Republic's clerical establishment is irrelevant in this calculus.

Khamenei [pictured above] can weather the public's disdain so long as the Revolutionary Guard serves as his Praetorian Guard. Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's founder, formed the Revolutionary Guard to defend his revolutionary vision. It is more powerful than the army and answers only to the supreme leader.

Ultimately, the theocracy will fall only if servicemen in the Revolutionary Guard switch sides. The end will come only over Khamenei's dead body.

Certainly, Iran today is a tinderbox. The question is whether the regime is better at putting out fires than demonstrators are at starting them.
[Los Angeles Times]
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