Where will the MidEast land?

The New Arab World Order -Robert Kaplan

The most telling aspect of the anti-regime demonstrations that have rocked the Arab world is what they are not about: They are not about the existential plight of the Palestinians under Israeli occupation; nor are they at least overtly anti-Western or even anti-American.

The demonstrators have directed their ire against unemployment, tyranny, and the general lack of dignity and justice in their own societies. This constitutes a sea change in modern Middle Eastern history.

Were demonstrations to spread in a big way to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, a catastrophe could be looming. Imagine all that weaponry the U.S. has sold the Saudis over the decades falling into the hands of Wahhabi radicals.
(Foreign Policy)
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UPDATES:

Muslim Brotherhood's Presence Grows Among Egyptian Protesters -Hamza Hendawi

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman said he had invited the Muslim Brotherhood into negotiations over Egypt's future and the transition to democracy - a stunning concession to a group that the regime considers its worst enemy.

The Brotherhood's presence among protesters has visibly grown.
(AP-Washington Post)


Jordan's King Meets with Muslim Brotherhood -Ethan Bronner

Jordan's King Abdullah II, struggling to stave off growing public discontent, met with the Muslim Brotherhood for the first time in nearly a decade, where he affirmed "that it is important for them to work together to press political reform that will increase the role of citizens in decision making," according to a statement from the royal court. The Muslim Brotherhood is estimated to have the support of 25 to 30% of Jordan's six million people. Abdullah, 49, has been paying surprise visits in recent days to poor areas and villages and ordering assistance to the families he has encountered.
(New York Times)


Toward a Soft Landing in Egypt -Charles Krauthammer

Who doesn't love a democratic revolution? Who is not moved by the renunciation of fear and the reclamation of dignity in the streets of Cairo? The Egyptian awakening carries promise and hope and of course merits our support. But only a child can believe that a democratic outcome is inevitable.

We are told by sage Western analysts not to worry about the Muslim Brotherhood because it probably commands only about 30% of the vote. In a country where the secular democratic opposition is weak and fractured after decades of persecution, any Islamist party commanding a third of the vote rules the country. The primary U.S. objective is to guide a transition period that gives secular democrats a chance.

Mohamed ElBaradei, who has lived abroad for decades, has allied himself with the Muslim Brotherhood. A man with no constituency allied with a highly organized and powerful political party is nothing but a mouthpiece and a figurehead, whom the Brotherhood will dispense with when it ceases to have need of a cosmopolitan frontman.
(Washington Post)


Hamas, the Brotherhood and Egypt -Editorial

Hovering like a dark cloud over the demonstrations in Egypt is the memory of the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections. For critics of the Bush administration, those elections, in which Hamas scored an unanticipated win, were proof that the "freedom agenda" would only grease the way for anti-American, Islamist parties to come to power. Those who believe that a democratic Egypt is doomed to fall into the Muslim Brotherhood's hands frequently cite the 2006 elections as Exhibit A. But the lesson of those elections is that Hamas should not have been allowed to participate, not that elections should never have been held.

If the Brotherhood wants to participate in elections, it should have to promise to play by democratic rules, respect religious and social pluralism, and honor Egypt's treaty commitments, especially to Israel.
(Wall Street Journal)


A Quick Mubarak Exit Is Too Risky -Edward N. Luttwak

Elite opinion in the West is almost unanimous that Mubarak must go now. Fears of an Islamist takeover are overblown, they argue. It is not often recalled that Hamas is simply the Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which won power by election - and now refuses to hold more elections.
[Wall Street Journal]


Desert Storm -Yossi Melman

Though Mubarak, a former commander of the air force who fought in the wars against Israel, was committed to the peace with Israel signed in 1979, he didn't allow the relationship between Egypt and Israel to prosper and be extended. Israel called it the "cold peace." But Mubarak's Egypt protected Israel's southern flank, enabling Israel to cut security budgets, enjoy economic prosperity, and divert its attention to the north, where enemies such as Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran posed much graver threats.
(Tablet)


Israel Faces Danger in Every Direction -David Horovitz

[A]ll [of Israel's] borders are now "in play" - that the Israel Defense Forces must overhaul their strategy to meet the possibility of dangers in every direction.
The writer is editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.
(Telegraph-UK)
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