Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Iran Celebrates Nuke Victory

Economic Boost Will Strengthen Iranian Regime - Itamar Eichner 

Many Iranians rushed onto the streets of Tehran to celebrate what they see as a great victory, as officials in Jerusalem warned that the agreement will preserve Iran's nuclear capabilities, while making effective supervision very difficult.

An Israeli government official said that Iran will receive $500-700 billion over the next 15 years that will consolidate the ayatollahs' rule. "Iran can use the money within Iran itself to enforce its uncompromising rule. The money will not serve human rights or economic development....It will not lead to the government being replaced, but rather the opposite. The regime will only be strengthened. The economic boost that Iran will get will be used mainly to consolidate its aggressive and terrorist capacity in the area."

"This is a nation determined to establish a foothold in our region through ongoing terrorism. Until now, there have been economic limits to its activity outside Iran." 
(Ynet News)

Iran Renews Aid to Hamas and Islamic Jihad - Avi Issacharoff 

After four months when Iran delayed transferring financial assistance to Hamas and Islamic Jihad because of budgetary concerns, it has in the last few days renewed the flow of money to Palestinian terror groups in Gaza - precisely because the new accord with the West gave it the confidence to do so.

Iran emerges from this accord strengthened, stable and with endless resources that will be directed to weaken Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf States and Israel by every means possible.   
(Times of Israel)

Arab States Fear Deal Gives Iran Bigger Regional Role
- Loveday Morris and Hugh Naylor 

Some Arab nations are worried that the Iran nuclear deal may allow Iran to fund proxy wars and extend its regional influence, with one Saudi diplomat describing the deal as "extremely dangerous."

"If sanctions are lifted, Iran will try even harder to redesign the region," he said. "Iran is trying to change the Middle East, and this is unacceptable to Sunnis."
Meanwhile, Iran's ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, describing the deal as a "great victory." 
(Washington Post)

More Planes, Missiles and Warships for Iran - Abbas Qaidaari 

President Rouhani's administration increased Iran's [military] budget by 32.5%.  

Congressional Democrats Skeptical of Iran Deal
- Manu Raju and Burgess Everett

Key Democrats are so far withholding support for the White House's Iran deal, worried that the plan would undermine national security, threaten Israel and too easily let Tehran escape punishing economic sanctions.

Many of them will be in office beyond the end of Obama's term, so an affirmative vote means they will effectively own the deal when they face voters again. That means they could pay a dear price politically.

Opposition Leader Working with Netanyahu Against Iran Deal
Opposition leader Isaac Herzog said he would work with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition to thwart the Iran nuclear deal, in a [rare] show of cooperation.

Herzog met with Netanyahu for an update on the nuclear agreement. "I think [the deal] is bad for Israel. We will certainly cooperate when it comes to the security of Israel. As an Israeli patriot, this deal is dangerous," Herzog told Israeli news site Walla.

Herzog said the main dangers of the deal come from the lifting of sanctions that "immediately give Iran a lot of money and resources, which will reach our enemies at our borders. Now Iran is out of the cage and will become a regional tiger."  
(Times of Israel)

Obama's Complex and Costly Deal with Iran - Editorial

If the transformation of Iranian behavior the president hopes for does not occur, the deal on its nuclear program may ultimately prove to be a poor one - a temporary curb that, when it lapses, will enable a dangerous threshold nuclear state that poses a major threat to the U.S. and its allies.

The bargain's most immediate effect will be to provide Tehran with up to $150 billion in fresh assets from sanctions relief over the next year, funds that its leaders will probably use to revive the domestic economy but also to finance wars and terrorist groups in Iraq, Syria, Gaza, Yemen and elsewhere. 

Though Mr. Obama has promised to mitigate that outcome with new support for Israel and U.S. Arab allies, one effect of the deal may be an increase in the sectarian bloodshed wracking the region, as well as the conventional threat to Israel
(Washington Post)

Tehran's Nuclear Triumph - Editorial

The nuclear agreement with Iran all but guarantees that Tehran will eventually become a nuclear power, while limiting the ability of a future president to prevent it.

(Wall Street Journal)

Iran Nuclear Deal Leaves Big Questions - Robert Satloff

The Iran nuclear agreement maps Iran's emergence as a regional power, with the full blessing - even support - of the U.S. and the international community. A deal originally conceived as trading sanctions relief for an end to Iran's nuclear program evolved into a deal trading sanctions relief for time-limited restrictions on Iran's ambitious nuclear plans.

According to the agreement, there is only one penalty for any infraction, big or small - taking Iran to the UN Security Council for the "snapback" of international sanctions. Yet all contracts signed by Iran up until that point are grandfathered in and immune from sanctions. That means one can expect a stampede of contracts - some real, many hypothetical - all designed to shield Iran from the impact of possible reimposition of sanctions, thereby weakening the impact of the punishment.

But the problem with snapback gets worse. The agreement states that Iran considers a reimposition of sanctions as freeing it from all commitments and restrictions under the deal. In other words, the violation would have to be really big for the Security Council to blow up the agreement. That effectively gives Iran a free pass on all manner of small to mid-level violations.
The writer is executive director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
(New York Daily News)

Major Problems with the Iran Deal - Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer 

The deal with Iran is breathtaking in its concessions to a regime that is the foremost sponsor of terror in the world, is on a march of conquest in the Middle East, is responsible for the murder and maiming of thousands of U.S. soldiers, and vows and works to annihilate the one and only Jewish state.

Israel has the most to gain if the Iranian nuclear issue is peacefully resolved, but this deal makes things much worse, increasing the chances of conventional war with Iran and its terror proxies today and dramatically increasing the chances of a nuclear-armed Iran and a nuclearized Middle East tomorrow.
(Washington Post)

War More Likely - Efraim Inbar

[A]n Israeli military strike on Iran has become more likely, and in the near future – before the US puts the brakes on military supplies to the Israeli army.
[Middle East Forum]

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