Reflections on Soleimani Assassination

The face of evil

Death of Iranian Soleimani Won't Mean World War III - Ray Takeyh 

After years of striding across the Middle East seemingly in command of the region, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran's Quds Brigade, was finally killed by American airstrikes early Friday. History will not mourn one of the great mass murderers of our time who was responsible for scores of dead, mostly Arab and American.

In the past decade, Soleimani turned terrorism into an effective instrument of Iran's imperial expansion by marshaling a transnational Shia expeditionary force that has prevailed in conflicts across the Middle East. His death will be a blow to the Iranian theocracy but could very likely temper the clerical oligarchs, who tend to retreat in the face of American determination.

As Soleimani began expanding Iran's imperial frontiers, he understood that Persians would not be willing to die in distant battlefields for the sake of Arabs, so he focused on recruiting Arabs and Afghans as an auxiliary force. In Iraq, that meant killing and maiming nearly 1,000 American service members. In Syria, that meant enabling President Assad's killing machine.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a cagey leader who did not become one of the longest serving rulers in the Middle East by impetuously going to war with America. The clerical oligarchs respect American determination and understand the imbalance between a superpower and a struggling regional actor. We should not expect Iran to take on a president who just ordered the killing of one of their famed commanders.

When Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency, Iran hastily released the American diplomats it had held hostage for 444 days. When George W. Bush's shock and awe campaign quickly displaced the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran responded by suspending its nuclear program.
The Iranian-born writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
(Politico)

The Old Foreign-Policy Rulebook Shielded Bad Actors - Jonathan S. Tobin

Qasem Soleimani was the mastermind of the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism. No matter how much mayhem he spread, he believed that he was untouchable. And three American administrations run by both Democrats and Republicans validated that belief, forgoing opportunities to kill the man who had the blood of many Americans and countless Syrians, Lebanese, Israelis and others on his hands. But following the orchestration of attacks on American forces in Iraq and an assault on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Soleimani's get-out-of-jail free card given by the international community expired.

What happened was more than a settling of scores. It proclaimed that the old rules by which Iran had been able to do its worst against the U.S., Israel and the West - never to face any consequences - were no longer valid. The foreign-policy rulebook that had restrained America in the past wound up shielding bad actors like Soleimani.

Killing Soleimani won't start a war; Iran has been waging a hot war against America and its allies for years. The Soleimani operation makes it clear to Iran's leaders, perhaps for the first time, that the costs of their provocations are now going to be borne by them, and not only their foes. Playing by rules that served the interests of a rogue regime is what endangered American lives and interests by making Iran stronger and feeling less constrained about employing its brutal tactics.
    
A world in which the world's leading state sponsor of terror is afraid of the U.S. can't be much worse than one in which the ayatollahs have nothing but contempt for Washington's resolve to defend American interests.
(JNS)


Calm Down: Killing Soleimani Made Us Safer - Elizabeth Tsurkov

Killing Qasem Soleimani counterintuitively decreases the threat of an all-out war. Soleimani's importance in projecting Iranian hard power and political influence across the Middle East cannot be understated. He oversaw the establishment, training, funding, command and control of (mostly Shia) militias across the Middle East; he also oversaw assassinations of Iranian regime opponents and attacks targeting civilians (many of them Jewish) in Europe and Latin America, as well as support to groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
    
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has been a rogue actor in its relations with the West, establishing militias responsible for kidnapping and killing Westerners, running assassination squads in European cities, and covertly working to develop the capability to assemble nuclear weapons.
    
Soleimani's killing may reestablish U.S. deterrence and decrease Iranian adventurism in the region, because the truth is, despite its fiery rhetoric, Iran's leadership knows that a significant escalation on its part could be met with an even more deadly U.S. response - something it can ill afford. 
The writer is a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. 
(Forward)


Gen. Petraeus: U.S. Helped "Reestablish Deterrence" by Killing Soleimani - Lara Seligman

Former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and former CIA director Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus is keenly familiar with Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani's killing was designed to send a pointed message to the regime that the U.S. will not tolerate continued provocation, Petraeus said.
    
"It is impossible to overstate the importance of this particular action. It is more significant than the killing of Osama bin Laden or even the death of [Islamic State leader] al-Baghdadi....The reasoning seems to be to show in the most significant way possible that the U.S. is just not going to allow the continued violence - the rocketing of our bases, the killing of an American contractor, the attacks on shipping, on unarmed drones - without a very significant response."
    
"This is a very significant effort to reestablish deterrence, which obviously had not been shored up by the relatively insignificant responses up until now....Yes, they can respond and they can retaliate, and that can lead to further retaliation - and that it is clear now that the administration is willing to take very substantial action. This is a pretty clarifying moment in that regard."  
(Foreign Policy)


Taking Out Soleimani Was Morally, Constitutionally and Strategically Correct - Joe Lieberman

President Trump's order to take out Qasem Soleimani was morally, constitutionally and strategically correct. He was responsible for murdering hundreds of Americans and planning to kill thousands more. No American can dispute that Soleimani created, supported and directed a network of terrorist organizations that spread havoc in the Middle East.
    
There are worries that Soleimani's death will provoke a violent response from Iran. Yet if we allow fear of a self-declared enemy like Iran to dictate our actions, we will only encourage them to come after us and our allies more aggressively. It is more likely that his death will diminish the chances of a wider conflict because the demonstration of our willingness to kill him will give Iranian leaders (and probably others like Kim Jong Un) much to fear. 
The writer was a U.S. senator from Connecticut, 1989-2013. 
(Wall Street Journal)


Iranians Violated Ground Rules with U.S. - Jonathan Spyer

The U.S. killing of Soleimani occurred after the Iranians departed from a tacit ground rule they had hitherto maintained. As noted by a number of analysts, the Iranian regime was apparently permitted by Washington to strike at U.S. allies with impunity, and could even hit at U.S. hardware, but it would be best advised not to harm U.S. citizens. Iran failed to abide by this rule and set in motion the series of events culminating in the death of Soleimani.
    
Iran is physically capable of a response against U.S. forces and allied targets. But if Iran chooses to kill one or a number of U.S. citizens, then the evidence of recent days suggests that the U.S. may well be willing to escalate to a level of confrontation at which the Iranians cannot compete. 
The writer is director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. 
(Jerusalem Post)


Hamas Criticized for Mourning Soleimani - Khaled Abu Toameh 
    
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders have been facing sharp criticism from other Arabs for setting up a mourning tent in Gaza for Qasem Soleimani. They also accused Hamas and PIJ of "disregarding the blood of thousands of Muslims" killed by Soleimani's force and allies in a number of Arab countries.
    
Mohamed Htaibat, a Jordanian professor of Islamic studies, said on Facebook: "Anyone who stands with Iran is standing against Sunnis." Palestinian political analyst Ibrahim Hamami posted on Twitter: "Mourning the murderer Qasem Soleimani represents a moral decline, political suicide, and hostility towards our nation."
(Jerusalem Post)
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UPDATES: 

War with Iran Is Not Inevitable - Hussein Ibish 

The leaders of the Islamic Republic like to think of themselves as strategic thinkers, with a keen understanding of their opponents and a knack for anticipating their next moves. But they clearly misjudged Donald Trump. Convinced the American president would do anything to avoid a war, they have for months been provoking the U.S. with progressively more intense provocations.
(Bloomberg)


The Demise of the Architect of Iran's Regional Ambitions - Baria Alamuddin

Over the broken backs of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, Qasem Soleimani desired a Greater Persia bristling with nuclear and ballistic rockets, capable of threatening America, Israel and the Arab nations on equal terms. Iran - its economy shattered by sanctions - is succumbing to the same imperial overstretch as ancient Persia. Its people are starving while warmongering leaders struggle to pay the wages of overseas proxies.
    
Is the demise of the architect of Iran's regional ambitions not a lesson in the ruinous consequences of seeking to dominate far-flung territories beyond their borders? Perhaps the best form of defense is not to be an aggressor in the first place. Instead of terrorizing ourselves over the worst-possible scenarios of how Khamenei may choose to respond, we would be wise to act decisively in support of the best-possible outcome: the curtailment of Tehran's hegemonic ambitions. 
(Arab News-Saudi Arabia)


Easy Call: The Strike on Soleimani Was Lawful - Alan M. Dershowitz

There can be no serious debate about the president's constitutional authority to order a single attack on an enemy combatant who has killed and is planning to kill American citizens. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama issued such orders.
    
The targeting of Soleimani was more justified, as a matter of law, than the targeting of Osama bin Laden in 2011. The killing of Soleimani was in large part an act of prevention, whereas the killing of bin Laden was primarily an act of retaliation.
    
The killing of Soleimani was also entirely legal under international law. The Quds Force commander was a combatant in uniform who was actively engaged in continuing military and terrorist activities against Americans. The rocket that killed him and a handful of others was carefully calibrated to minimize collateral damage, and the resulting death toll was proportionate to the deaths it may have prevented. 
The writer is a professor emeritus at Harvard Law School. 
(Wall Street Journal)
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MORE UPDATES: 

Targeting Soleimani Is a Major Blow to Iran - Hillel Frisch 
    
Soleimani's killing proves that the Iranian security system is riddled with informants.
    
They knew when Soleimani left his secret hideout in Damascus, what plane he boarded, at which airport he was going to land, which vehicles he and his retinue entered upon landing, and exactly what time those vehicles were heading out of the airport.
    
This suggests an information flow involving informants closely connected to the upper echelons of the Quds Force.
    
The killing creates a devastating chain of destructive suspicion and anxiety in the corridors of power.
    
Many will be removed, if not executed, as Iranian counterintelligence teams try to identify the informants.
The writer is a professor of political and Middle East studies at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research associate at its BESA Center for Strategic Studies.
(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)


Soleimani's Death Weakens Iran - Michael Doran

Taking out Qasem Soleimani, the architect of the Islamic Republic's long campaign of violence against the U.S. and its allies, especially Israel, will make Iran much weaker. It will embolden the country's regional rivals - primarily Israel and Saudi Arabia - to pursue their strategic interests more resolutely. It will also instill in the protesters in Iran, Lebanon and, especially, Iraq, the hope that they will one day wrest control of their governments from the talons of the Islamic Republic.
    
The U.S. search for a modus vivendi with Tehran never comported with the reality of the Islamic Republic's fundamental character and regional ambitions. A strong and visible response to Soleimani's escalations was long overdue. I know from my own experience, as a former senior official in the White House and the Defense Department, that the U.S. had several past opportunities to kill Soleimani but each time decided against it. This restraint did not make the world safer. It only gave Soleimani more time to build his empire.
    
The world to which we wake up today, rid of its most accomplished and deadly terrorist, is a better place. 
The writer, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, served in the departments of State and Defense, and on the U.S. National Security Council. 
(New York Times)


Qasem Soleimani Connected All the Dots in Iran's Strategy
- Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Shimon Shapira and Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael Segall 

Soleimani's instructing militias to invade the American Embassy compound in Baghdad was an arrogant move that did not take into account the American national trauma of the 2012 invasion of the American Embassy in Benghazi (and the murder of four Americans), as well as the 1979 seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran.
(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
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