Obama's Man in the Palestinian Authority

Salam Fayyad Stands No Chance Against Fatah
- Khaled Abu Toameh

• Fatah leaders are yearning for the days of Yasser Arafat, when they were able to steal international aid earmarked for helping Palestinians.
• The Palestinians' problem with [Salam] Fayyad [pictured] is that he did not sit even one day in an Israeli prison. For them, graduating from an Israeli prison is even more important that going to any university.
• PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah leaders see U.S.-educated Salam Fayyad, who was appointed PA prime minister in 2007 at the request of the U.S. and EU countries, as a threat to their control over the Palestinian Authority and its finances.
• Some Fatah leaders, such as Tawfik Tirawi and Najat Abu Baker, are even convinced that Fayyad is plotting, together with the U.S. and other Western countries, to replace Abbas. Were it not for U.S. and EU intervention, Abbas and Fatah would have removed Fayyad from his job several years ago.
• Each time Abbas considered sacking Fayyad, U.S. and EU government officials stepped in to warn that such a move would seriously affect foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority.
• Yet these efforts have been counterproductive and have further discredited Fayyad in the eyes of many Palestinians. Fayyad's enemies have cited these efforts as "proof" that he is a "foreign agent."
• Fatah's main problem with Fayyad is that he has almost exclusive control over the PA budget. Fatah does not like the idea that its leaders can no longer steal international aid because of Fayyad's presence.

(Gatestone Institute)
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UPDATES: 

By Their Predictions Shall You Know Them -Barry Rubin, PhD

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has resigned once again. What's news, however, is that PA "President" Mahmoud Abbas has accepted it.

While it's hard to believe that Fayyad will finally be ousted--the Western donors want him in power--the continuing frustrations of the only honest and relatively moderate Palestinian official shows that the PA has made no progress toward moderation, state-building, or real economic success.

This is despite what might be the highest per capita foreign aid in world history. It also sheds new light on what often seems to be the the world's best-kept secret: The Palestinian leadership doesn't want a peaceful solution with Israel.
[The Rubin Report]
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Fayyad's Resignation: The Beginning of the End of the PA? - Barak Ravid

The resignation of PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad on Saturday will affect Israel and the Obama administration's efforts to renew the peace process, as well as EU policy towards the Palestinians. Fayyad, a former IMF economist educated in the U.S., was a symbol of good governance and the war on corruption. But PA President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah party's old guard saw Fayyad as a political rival who needed to be eliminated.

Fayyad's resignation will place a question mark on the prospect of continued international aid to the PA without Fayyad guarding the public coffers.
(Ha'aretz)

Resignation: Bad News - Jonathan S. Tobin

The resignation of PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad lays bare the collapse of the hope that Palestinian nationalism would be refocused on development and coexistence rather than violence. It dooms the Palestinians to a choice between the incompetent cadres of Fatah or the bloody Islamist tyranny of Hamas.

Without Fayyad (or someone like him), there is no pretense of a state living in peace with Israel, rather than a kleptocracy run by terrorists. It is also a guarantee that the terms of any peace deal signed with the Palestinians will not be observed.

Fayyad's tragedy was not just that both Fatah and Hamas wanted to be rid of him, but that he had virtually no support among ordinary Palestinians.
(New York Post)

Fayyad's Departure - Hugh Naylor

The resignation of Salam Fayyad may signal a resurgence of old-style politics in the West Bank, with a focus on backroom deal-making and patronage. Appointed by President Abbas to the premiership in 2007, Fayyad streamlined the PA's bloated budget while reining in corruption and dismantling the militant groups that had roamed the West Bank. The result was more stability and glimmers of economic prosperity.
(The National-UAE)
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The Fayad Resignation: Scapegoating a State-Builder - David Makovsky

The departure of PA Prime Minister Salam Fayad could be a blow to the Palestinians, particularly in terms of how much international aid they receive. Fayad became the PA's finance minister in 2002 upon demand by donor countries who were concerned that their contributions were being diverted for corruption. Before he took office, PA security personnel were paid via paper bags full of cash. Fayad insisted that every PA employee have a bank account and be paid on time. After Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, Fayad became prime minister and security cooperation with Israel became the norm.

His tenure has been defined by institution-building, in which the PA built schools, health clinics, hospitals, paved roads and installed water pipes. In particular, Fayad's embrace of economic transparency - which included U.S.-led audits - was instrumental in attracting increased international aid.

Fayad repeatedly warned that Abbas' statehood bids at the UN would spur Washington to cut off aid, and Israel to halt the transfer of Palestinian tax revenues. Nevertheless, he was blamed for the economic downturn that resulted.
The writer is director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
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A New Challenge for Palestinians - Aaron David Miller

The resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has the potential to inject clarity and honesty into the discussion. Hamas said that Fayyad was a major obstacle to the formation of a unity government in the territories. Fayyad's departure will help reveal that Palestinian unity is an illusion, that what divides the Palestinians are fundamental differences over what Palestine is and even where it should be.

Fayyad's resignation highlights the leadership crisis in the Palestinian national movement. If PA President Mahmoud Abbas were to leave the scene, Fatah itself might split.

There is no obvious, nationally recognized figure who could hold the Palestinian Authority together. The name usually mentioned as a possibility, Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, is currently serving several life sentences in an Israeli prison.
The writer is a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
(Los Angeles Times)
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Israel: The happy little country that can -Caroline Glick

Fayyad was nothing more than a Western delusion, like Arab peace with Israel.

Fayyad didn't have a chance of leading the Palestinians because he never personally killed a Jew. And the Palestinians only accept murderers as their leaders. But the fact that he never killed a Jew personally didn't render Fayyad a partner for Israel.

Fayyad dutifully used donor funds to pay the salaries of terrorists in Judea, Samaria and Gaza every month. He led the Palestinian branch of the boycott, divestment and sanctions war against Israel. He made working for Israelis and buying Israeli goods criminal offenses. Fayyad personally led raids into private homes to inspect people's refrigerators to see if they had Israeli cottage cheese on their shelves. He organized and attended bonfires where they burned Israeli goods.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is not the sort of behavior you would expect a peace partner to engage in.
[Jewish World Review]
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Palestinian's Kick Sand in Obama's Face

After Obama snubbed the PA on his recent trip [twice],
Palestinians kick sand in Obama's face

Efforts to Revive Peace Process Run Adrift -Robert Tait

Palestinian sources said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during his current visit to Israel and the West Bank suggested reviving the Arab Peace Initiative - first proposed by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2002 - as a basis for re-starting talks between Israel and the Palestinians, which have been stalled for the past three years. Kerry was said to have proposed wording that would soften the initiative's demand for Israel to withdraw to pre-1967 borders, saying they could be modified by mutual agreement, while inserting stronger security guarantees for Israel.

"Kerry asked us to change a few words in the Arab Peace Initiative but we refused," said Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator.

The plan, which calls for Israel's complete withdrawal from the West Bank and east Jerusalem, has been accepted by the Arab League but rejected by Israeli leaders on the grounds that it would leave the county with indefensible borders.
(Telegraph-UK)
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Firmness Bears Fruit...Talks Fail

Iran Heeds Israel's Uranium "Red Line" -Editorial

• The latest round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program was, by all accounts, a disappointment. Tehran's negotiators did not spell out a full response to a proposal by the U.S. and five partners for limiting its enrichment of uranium, and what they did say revealed a wide gulf between the two sides.
• The international coalition is offering Iran a partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for a freeze on the production of medium-enriched uranium, while Iran wants a complete lifting of sanctions in exchange for token steps that would leave its nuclear work unfettered. The Obama administration and its allies rightly refused Iranian requests to schedule further meetings.
• Proponents of diplomacy over war with Iran can thank Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli leader's explicit setting of a "red line" for the Iranian nuclear program in a speech to the UN General Assembly in September appears to have accomplished what neither negotiations nor sanctions have yielded: concrete Iranian action to limit its enrichment.
• A host of commentators scoffed at what they called Mr. Netanyahu's "cartoonish" picture of a bomb and the line he drew across it [pictured above]. The prime minister said Iran could not be allowed to accumulate enough 20% enriched uranium to produce a bomb with further processing, adding that at the rate its centrifuges were spinning, Tehran would cross that line by the middle of 2013.
• But then the regime began diverting some of its stockpile to the manufacture of fuel plates for a research reactor. According to the most recent report of international inspectors, in February, Iran had converted 40% of its 20% uranium for this purpose. As a result, Iran has remained distinctly below the Israeli red line.
• The lesson here is that clear red lines can help create the time and space for diplomacy that President Obama seeks.

(Washington Post)


Iran Beyond Oil? -Patrick Clawson

Iran is in the midst of a non-oil export boom. While still important, oil is becoming a smaller part of Iran's trade. The country's largest trading partners are Iraq, China, the UAE, Afghanistan, India, and Turkey. In short, even with reduced oil income due to sanctions, Iran's government finances are doing as well as (or better) than those of the U.S. and most other industrial countries.

Iran is therefore unlikely to be crippled by any sanctions the West could impose. Thus, it would be imprudent to rest one's hopes for resolution of the nuclear impasse on such a possibility.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
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UPDATE: 

Negotiations on Iran Are Failing -Emily B. Landau

• The latest round of negotiations with Iran has ended in failure, with the two sides as far apart as ever. 
• Time is running out for the international community. Iran has built up its nuclear infrastructure and will continue to do so until a decision to move to nuclear weapons is unstoppable. Time works in Iran's favor as long as it can string the international community along, and ward off military action by convincing it that cooperation is just around the corner.
• If Obama is truly committed to stopping Iran, the lack of any reasonable prospect for a negotiated settlement after ten years of efforts should make it clear that the U.S. has no choice, and it's time for more forceful options.
• A limited, surgical strike to Iran's nuclear facilities would send a serious message, perhaps one that would bring them to the table looking for a deal. Military action is far from the preferred option, but it is beginning to look like the one that has a realistic prospect of compelling Iran to seriously consider changing course.
  
  The writer is a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

(Ha'aretz)
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Sad Easter in The MidEast

A Coptic Church in Libya lies in ruins

Islamist "Cleansing" of Christians in Mideast - Ralph Peters

Islamist terrorists and fanatics are methodically exterminating the 2,000-year-old Christian civilization of the Middle East through oppression, threats, appropriations and deadly violence. Christianity's greatest thinkers, greatest monuments and greatest triumphs for its first 1,000 years rose in the Middle East. But today, the end is in sight.

In Iraq, the country's Christian population, estimated at up to 2 million a decade ago, has fallen by half - perhaps by three-quarters. Over 2 million Christians in Syria dread Islamist terror and religious cleansing. Two-thirds of the West Bank's and more of Gaza's Christians have been driven out. They're now a small minority even in Bethlehem. Christians in Iran? Gone. Turkey? Almost gone. Saudi Arabia? Once-thriving Christian and Jewish populations were finished off centuries ago.

Egypt has the region's largest remaining Christian population, at least 10 million Copts. With rare exceptions, they've long been confined to squalid quarters and treated as third-class citizens. Now the Salafist fanatics have been unleashed.
(New York Post)
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A Wary Easter Weekend for Christians in Syria -Anne Barnard

Torches flickered outside the church. Little girls wore their sparkly Easter best. Children bearing lanterns filed out through the heavy gilt doors, as worshipers carried an icon of Jesus and a cross covered with carnations.

But the Good Friday procession at St. Kyrillos Church here in Syria’s capital did not follow the route it had taken for generations. No drums or trumpets announced its presence. The marchers made a tight circle inside the iron-gated courtyard, then headed back into the church...

 

Easter weekend is usually the year’s most festive for Syria’s Christians, but this year, it is infused with grave uncertainty. Christians here say they primarily fear the general chaos enveloping the country as the war enters its third year. But like members of Syria’s other religious minorities, many Christians also fear what they see as the rise of extremists among the mainly Sunni Muslim rebels fighting the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

[New York Times]

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UPDATE:


Kidnappers Target Christians in Egypt -Hamza Hendawi 

Ezzat Kromer, a Christian gynecologist in Matai, Egypt, was kidnapped by masked gunmen and held for ransom. His case was part of a dramatic rise of kidnappings targeting Christians, including children, in Egypt's southern province of Minya, home to the country's largest concentration of Christians.
   
Kromer, a father of three, was snatched on Jan. 29 as he drove home. By the next day, his family paid nearly $40,000 to a middleman and he was released.
Church leaders and rights activists blame the atmosphere created by the rising power of hard-line Islamists.
   
Over the past two years, there have been more than 150 reported kidnappings in the province - all of them targeting Christians, with 37 in the last several months, according to a top official at the Interior Ministry.   
(AP)
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Israel's Healthy Cynicism

Israel's Insightful Cynicism -Robert D. Kaplan

Israel had a convenient situation for decades, surrounded by stable Arab dictatorships. Israel could promote itself as the region's only real democracy, even as it quietly depended on the likes of Hosni Mubarak, the al Assad clan and the Hashemites to ensure order and more-or-less few surprises. Now dictators are falling and anarchy is on the rise.

Fighting state armies of the kind that the Arab dictators built in wars in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 was simpler compared to today's wars: Because the Arabs never really believed in their dysfunctional states, they didn't always fight very well in state-organized formations.

But sub-state militaries like Hizbullah and Hamas have been more of a challenge. Given their geographical circumstances, Israelis can be forgiven their cynicism. 
(Stratfor)


Arab Leaders WhoTake Risks Paid with Their Lives -Clifford D. May

Meeting with King Abdullah II in Jordan last Friday, President Obama was gracious enough to mention the monarch's great-grandfather, King Abdullah I, assassinated in 1951, who "gave his life in the name of peace." To Western ears, that sounded like a tribute. To Arab and Muslim ears, it may have sounded like a warning.

Imagine you are Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority. You know that making peace with Israel will bring you the praise of British prime ministers and American presidents. Perhaps you understand that peace would be in the best interest of your people. But you also are keenly aware that serious peacemaking will place you and members of your family in severe peril.
Egypt's President Anwar Sadat made peace with Israel in 1979. Two years later, he was assassinated in accord with a fatwa written by Omar Abdel Rahman, the "Blind Sheikh," who would go on to be convicted for his role in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. Since becoming president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, has been calling for the Blind Sheikh's release.

The assassination of Lebanese president Bashir Gemayel in September 1982 was related to the fact that just two weeks earlier he had agreed to start the process of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
(Israel Hayom)
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Obama Snubs Abbas: Accept "Jewish State"

Obama to Palestinians: Accept the Jewish State -Daniel Pipes, PhD

• One key shift in U.S. policy during President Obama's visit to Israel last week was the demand that Palestinians recognize Israel as the Jewish state.
  
• Israel's founding documents aimed to make the country a Jewish state. The Balfour Declaration of 1917 favors "a national home for the Jewish people." UN General Assembly Resolution 181 of 1947, partitioning Palestine into two, mentions the term "Jewish state" 30 times. Everyone simply assumed that diplomatic recognition of Israel meant accepting it as the Jewish state. 
  
• When Israelis and their friends realized that they had to insist on explicit Arab acceptance of Israel as the Jewish state, in 2007, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that unless Palestinians did so, diplomacy would be aborted.
  
• When Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded Olmert as prime minister in 2009, he said: "Israel expects the Palestinians to first recognize Israel as a Jewish state before talking about two states for two peoples."
  
• In his Jerusalem speech last week, Obama suddenly and unexpectedly adopted in full the Israeli demand: "Palestinians must recognize that Israel will be a Jewish state."
• That sentence breaks important new ground. It also makes for excellent policy, for without such recognition, Palestinian acceptance of Israel is hollow.
• Those 10 words establish a readiness to deal with the conflict's central issue. They likely will be Obama's most important, most lasting and most constructive contribution to Arab-Israeli diplomacy.

The writer is president of the Middle East Forum.
(Washington Times)
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UPDATE:

Obama's Foreign Policy Team  -Jonathan S. Tobin

[H]aving wasted his first term on dead-end diplomacy with Tehran and the Palestinians, the president's Israel visit suggested that he has learned from his mistakes.

This was demonstrated, inter alia, by his reaffirmation of Washington's "eternal" alliance with Jerusalem in language validating Israel's ancient history: in stark contrast to his 2009 Cairo speech which ascribed Israel's right to exist to the Holocaust. Obama also upped his rhetoric regarding Iran, leaving himself little room short of a full diplomatic success that would contain Tehran's nuclear threat.

These positive aspects notwithstanding, given Obama's past failure to follow through on his rhetoric, it remains to be seen whether his recent pronouncements translate into actions that make the U.S. more secure while maintaining its close alliance with Israel.
[The Middle East Forum]
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Watch North Korea & Iran

How Iran Could Get the Bomb Overnight -Edward Jay Epstein

The West has tried to stop Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons by diplomacy, sanctions and cybersabotage, and with the threat of military action if Tehran crosses red lines in moving toward the final stages of making a bomb. If Iran becomes discouraged in its efforts, an easier and more immediately dangerous option is available: buying nuclear weapons from North Korea.

Since the U.S. has munitions capable of destroying all of Iran's centrifuges above ground at Natanz and sealing off the entrances to its underground facilities at Fordo - plus the Stealth bombers to deliver these knockout punches - Iran would likely lose the means to manufacture nuclear weapons before it could make a single one.

But what if Iran buys one or two nuclear warheads from North Korea?

[North Korea] claims it has nuclear warheads that fit on its No Dong medium-range ballistic missiles. If that claim is true, then mounting the warheads on Iran's Shahab missiles, which are copies of the North Korean ones, would present little problem.
(Wall Street Journal)
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Will the Turkey-Israel Truce Hold?

Turkey & Israel

Can Israel and Turkey Really Bury the Hatchet? -Eyal Zisser

The events of the 2010 raid on the Mavi Marmara seem far away now. Since that incident, Egyptian President Mubarak was overthrown, the reality between Israel and Gaza changed radically, and Syria has plunged into a bloody civil war. It is doubtful that the re-normalization of relations will truly allow both nations to re-establish the same intimate relationship they once shared - not any time soon.

At the same time, Israel and Turkey's financial ties continued to prosper over the past three years, despite the diplomatic rift. Tourism may have suffered, but commercial ties bloomed. Erdogan had hoped that his anti-Israeli, pro-Arab policies would open the Arab markets for them, only to see Ankara's massive investments in Syria literally go up in smoke. The same fate befell Turkey's investments in Egypt. This reality makes Israel seem like a reliable and promising economic partner.

The Arab Spring has also exposed - and deepened - the political chasm between Turkey and Iran.

Israel must remember that Turkey is ruled by a firebrand prime minister who supports various Islamic movements in the Arab world. But he too understands that political interests trump all others; and it was those economic and security interests that facilitated the reconciliation with Israel.
Prof. Eyal Zisser is former director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.
(Israel Hayom)


Turkish Perception Versus Reality - Herb Keinon

Turkish President Erdogan crowed that Israel acceded to all of Ankara's demands in apologizing for the Mavi Marmara incident. According to Israeli diplomatic officials familiar with the months-long negotiations over the formula, Erdogan wanted a public apology to him for the raid on the ship and the killing of nine Turks. What he got was a bit different. Netanyahu regretted the loss of life, and issued an apology to the Turkish people, not to Erdogan, for operational mistakes - if they happened - that led to the loss of life. Furthermore, Netanyahu did not apologize for commandeering the ship, something the Turks wanted.

On the issue of compensation, Israel always said it would pay compensation. On the issue of lifting the blockade of Gaza, the statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office and carefully crafted by both sides read: "Prime Minister Netanyahu also noted that Israel had substantially lifted the restrictions on the entry of civilian goods into the Palestinian territories, including Gaza, and that this would continue as long as calm prevailed." That in no way can be interpreted as "lifting the siege of Gaza," but Erdogan declares his demands were met.
(Jerusalem Post)


The Erdogan, Netanyahu Reconciliation: Interests Triumph -Barak Ravid

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan in a phone conversation on Friday that he appreciated the comments Erdogan made to the Danish newspaper Politiken on Wednesday in which he took back the statements he previously made calling Zionism a form of racism. Erdogan explained that he was criticizing Israeli policies in Gaza and that his statements were misconstrued. Erdogan told Netanyahu that he cherishes the longstanding relationship between Israel and Turkey and between the Turkish people and the Jewish people, stressing that he would like to improve relations.

The Turkish prime minister promised President Obama to stop his harsh public criticism of Israel. Erdogan was surprised by the strong American response to the speech in which he said that Zionism is a crime against humanity. The Americans were furious and publicly rebuked him. In actuality, Netanyahu's message of apology to Turkey was only made possible after Erdogan apologized himself for his remarks.

What led more than anything else to the end to the crisis was the serious deterioration of the crisis in Syria. In addition, shared interest in the Iranian nuclear issue is only growing. As in September 2007 in Syria, Erdogan will not shed a tear if Israel or the U.S. "solves" this problem.
(Ha'aretz)
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UPDATES: 


BBC Bests New York Times on Coverage of Israeli Apology

The New York Times informed readers that Israel apologized "for a deadly commando raid" and expressed regret "for the raid." But Israel did not apologize "for the raid" itself, but rather for operational errors potentially tied to loss of lives during the incident.
    
The BBC offered a more accurate summary: "Israel's prime minister has apologized to Turkey for "any errors that could have led to loss of life" during the 2010 commando raid on an aid flotilla that tried to breach the Gaza blockade.
     
The Times also avoided pointing out that the loss of lives on the boat were part of an intense and violent battle between Israeli troops and the activist passengers who attacked them as they boarded the ship.       
(CAMERA)
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Not Yet a Reconciliation -Ely Karmon

The first test for Erdogan's real intentions will be his expected visit to Gaza in mid-April, where he is sure to be received as the next Sultan.

The crucial question is how much support Erdogan will give to Hamas, which has not renounced its goal of liberating all of Palestine through the armed struggle. Turkey's leadership has neither criticized Hamas' violent activities nor succeeded in influencing its strategy, while protesting loudly Israel's retaliatory actions.
The writer is Senior Research Scholar at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the IDC in Herzliya. 
(Ha'aretz)
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PA: We Don't Want Turkish Prime Minister to Visit Gaza
-Khaled Abu Toameh

The Palestinian Authority opposes Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's intention to visit Gaza, a senior PA official in Ramallah said. "The Palestinian Authority leadership has informed the Turkish government that we are opposed to such a visit," he said. "Gaza is not an independent Palestinian state and Hamas is not the legitimate representative of the Palestinians."

The PA fears that such visits would legitimize Hamas rule in Gaza and affect the PLO's claim to be the sole, legitimate representative of the Palestinians.
(Jerusalem Post)


Iran's Foes Are Israel's Friends -Editorial

The rapprochement between Jerusalem and Ankara has profound implications, not just for the conflict in Syria, but also for containing Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional designs. A UN investigation found Israel's blockade was legal and its forces justified in defending themselves against "organized and violent resistance."

Yet the ensuing standoff has been a major impediment in confronting the Syrian crisis and has given comfort to Syria's ally Iran.

Netanyahu has had to swallow a bitter pill, but the reconciliation with his Turkish counterpart Erdogan is a strategically smart decision for which they both deserve great credit.
(The Australian)
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Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement -Yoav Karny

Three weeks ago, Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu invited the descendants of the last of the Ottoman dynasty to a festive dinner at the Turkish embassy in London. Among the guests was the grandson of the last Caliph, whom Kemal Ataturk deposed in March 1924.

And Turkey is seriously trying to convince its neighbors that it has no interest in reviving the Ottoman past?
(Globes)
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Turkey's gloating billboard

Maybe that Israeli Apology to Turkey was a Good Idea -Daniel Pipes, PhD

The municipality of Turkey's capital city, Ankara, put up billboards on city streets reveling in the Israeli apology. They are not subtle, showing a sad-looking Netanyahu beneath a larger, buoyant Erdoğan, separated by the Mavi Marmara itself. Addressing Erdoğan, they read: "Israel apologized to Turkey. Dear Prime Minister, we are grateful that you let our country experience this pride."

Erdoğan himself claims not only that the apology has changed the balance of power in the Arab-Israeli conflict but that it obligates Israel to work with Ankara in its diplomacy with the Palestinians.

Indeed, the Turkish gloating has been so conspicuous and extended that it may have prompted to a healthy sense of reality.

Now that Israelis humiliated themselves and Erdoğan is rampaging ahead, some are awakening to the fact that this apology only made matters worse. Naftali Bennett, Israel's minister of economy and trade, slammed the Turkish response: "Since the apology was made public, it appears Erdoğan is doing everything he can to make Israel regret it, while conducting a personal and vitriolic campaign at the expense of Israel-Turkey relations. Let there be no doubt — no nation is doing Israel a favor by renewing ties with it. It should also be clear to Erdoğan that if Israel encounters in the future any terrorism directed against us, our response will be no less severe."

Boaz Bismuth of Israel Hayom colorfully notes that Israelis "didn't expect to feel that only several days after Israel's apology, Erdoğan would already be making us feel that we had eaten a frog along with our matzah this year."

Perhaps after all the apology was a good thing. For a relatively inexpensive price – some words – Israelis and others have gained a better insight into the Turkish leadership's mentality. It's not that they suffer from hurt pride but that they are Islamist ideologues with an ambitious agenda. If the misguided apology makes this evident to more observers, it has its compensations and possibly could turn out to be a net plus.
[National Review Online]
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Reconciliation with Turkey? Not with Erdogan - Nitzan Nuriel

So long as Erdogan remains prime minister of Turkey, there is no chance for genuine, full reconciliation between the countries. Erdogan does not accept Israel's activities, he has acted defiantly in the past, and his stance with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is known.

It is not good for Israel to be in a state of high intensity friction with Turkey. Therefore, measures that are intended to reduce the friction are correct, but we must not be tempted to believe that these will fundamentally change Erdogan's opinions towards Israel.
Brig.-General Nitzan Nuriel is the former head of Israel's Counter Terrorism Bureau.
(Israel Defense)
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Obama Snubs Abbas: 'Forget Settlement Freeze'

President Obama, who once championed a settlement freeze, does an about face, paying Abbas back for his intransigence

Obama Tells Palestinians: No Preconditions to Peace Talks
- Matti Friedman

President Obama told Palestinians that he does not support preconditions to peace negotiations. Speaking at a press conference in Ramallah, Obama indicated that Palestinians could not expect an Israeli settlement freeze ahead of talks. If issues were made into preconditions to negotiations, he said, there was "no point in negotiations."
   
Obama reminded listeners that the U.S. is the Palestinians' biggest donor, and blamed Hamas for "misery" in Gaza. The situation there, he said, came about "because Hamas refuses to renounce violence...because too often it focuses on tearing Israel down than building Palestine up." 
(Times of Israel)


Obama's Visit with Abbas in Ramallah - Jonathan S. Tobin
 
During President Obama's visit, rockets were fired from Gaza into southern Israel, illustrating not only that the PA didn't control much of what would constitute an independent Palestinian state, but that those who did had no interest in a two-state solution.
     
The Obama-Abbas press conference struck a very different note from the friendly exchanges that marked the president's appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. While the president was again stating his support for the idea of a Palestinian state, he also pushed back a little bit on Abbas' charade that Israeli settlements were preventing the outbreak of peace.
    
Obama said that settlements were not the core issue at the heart of the conflict and that if all the other factors dividing the two sides were resolved, settlements would not prevent peace. Even more importantly, he emphasized that there ought to be no preconditions placed by either side before peace negotiations could be resumed. That's a direct shot at Abbas who has refused to talk to the Israelis since 2008 and consistently set conditions for doing so that were merely a thinly veiled excuse for staying away from the table.
    
Obama's message to Palestinians seems to be more one of "get your act together" than one that offers them hope they can count on the president to hammer the Israelis on their behalf. The lack of a direct demand from Obama for a settlement freeze and the seeming endorsement of Israel's call for resumption of negotiations without preconditions means the Palestinians have been put on notice that the president's second term may not be squandered on further attempts to help a divided people that won't help themselves.
(Commentary)


Palestinians Disappointed with Obama - Khaled Abu Toameh

Even before President Obama left Ramallah, PA officials were quick to express disappointment with the result of his talks with President Abbas.
   
Asked about the PA's future steps in light of Obama's visit, an aide to Abbas said, "We have no choice but to step up popular resistance against Israeli occupation and settlements."   (Jerusalem Post)


Palestinians Protest Obama Visit - Noah Browning

Palestinian protesters raised their hands and tried to wave away the helicopter that brought U.S. President Barack Obama to Ramallah in the West Bank, accusing him of siding with Israel. Around 150 demonstrators chanted anti-American slogans, saying they wanted weapons not presidential visits.
     
While the U.S. president received a warm welcome when he arrived in Israel on Wednesday, Palestinians were much colder, clearly angered by his promise of unstinting support for Israel and repeated pledges to guarantee its security needs. Obama laid a wreath on the grave of Zionist leader Theodor Herzl, but Palestinian requests for Obama to visit the tomb of former President Yasser Arafat were turned down. In Gaza, dozens of protesters burned U.S. flags and chanted that the president should "get out of Palestine." 
(Reuters)


Obama's Israel Visit Leaves Arabs Upset -Ariel Ben Solomon    

The Arab media see the Obama visit to Israel as a reversal of his initial attitude upon beginning his first term in 2009 and his famous outreach to the Muslim world, symbolized by his speech in Cairo that same year.      
(Jerusalem Post)
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UPDATES: 

Obama Aligns U.S. Policy with Israel -Robert Satloff

The main story of President Obama's Middle East trip was his intensive focus on engineering an emotional reset with both the leadership and people of Israel, including an embrace of Israel's founding ideology. The visit also marked a shift in U.S. policy on the requirements for resuming Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. The president firmly aligned himself with Israel's position that they should now proceed, immediately and without precondition.
    
He reiterated that the most effective way to proceed remains a negotiation over the delineation of borders, which he said would resolve the settlements issue. This approach is now likely to dominate U.S. diplomatic efforts, as opposed to focusing on interim arrangements or incremental changes. 
The writer is executive director of The Washington Institute.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)


Obama in Israel -Josh Gerstein

Obama's second-term strategy became clear during the trip: express such unqualified, heartfelt love and affection for Israelis and the State of Israel that they trust him to have Israel's back in future peace talks, then coax Palestinians back to the table. Obama warmed the hearts of many Jews by paying tribute to the ideas of Zionism and Jews' historic connection to the Holy Land.

His statements were unequivocal and rejected Arab narratives about Jews and the Jewish state being interlopers. 
(Politico)
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What Really Happened in Jerusalem -Charles Krauthammer, MD

Obama knows that peace talks are going nowhere.

First, because there is no way that Israel can sanely make concessions while its neighborhood is roiling and unstable — the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt, rockets being fired from Gaza, Hezbollah brandishing 50,000 missiles aimed at Israel, civil war raging in Syria with its chemical weapons and rising jihadists, and Iran threatening openly to raze Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Second, peace is going nowhere because Abbas has shown Obama over the past four years that he has no interest in negotiating. Obama’s message to Abbas was blunt: Come to the table without preconditions, i.e., without the excuse of demanding a settlement freeze first.

Obama himself had contributed to this impasse when he imposed that precondition — for the first time ever in the history of Arab-Israeli negotiations — four years ago. And when Israel responded with an equally unprecedented 10-month settlement freeze, Abbas didn’t show up to talk until more than nine months in — then walked out, never to return.

In Ramallah last week, Obama didn’t just address this perennial Palestinian dodge. He demolished the very claim that settlements are the obstacle to peace. Palestinian sovereignty and Israeli security are “the core issue,” he told Abbas. “If we solve those two problems, the settlement problem will be solved.”

Finally. Presidential validation of the screamingly obvious truism: Any peace agreement will produce a Palestinian state with not a single Israeli settlement remaining on its territory. Any settlement on the Palestinian side of whatever border is agreed upon will be demolished. Thus, any peace that reconciles Palestinian statehood with Israeli security automatically resolves the settlement issue. It disappears.

Yes, Obama offered the ritual incantations about settlements being unhelpful. Nothing new here. He could have called them illegal or illegitimate. It wouldn’t have mattered — because Obama officially declared them irrelevant.

Exposing settlements as a mere excuse for the Palestinian refusal to negotiate — that was the news, widely overlooked, coming out of Obama’s trip. It was a breakthrough.

Will it endure? Who knows. But when an American president so sympathetic to the Palestinian cause tells Abbas to stop obstructing peace with that phony settlement excuse, something important has happened. Abbas, unmasked and unhappy, knows this better than anyone.
[Washington Post]
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Obama in Wonderland [continued]

President Obama & Prime Minister Netanyahu tour the ancient Dead Sea Scrolls

Obama Visit: A Love Fest with Policy Complications -Barry Rubin, PhD

Palestinian anti-Obama demonstrations showed the "gratitude" amassed for Obama's previous support by branding him as a Zionist, imperialist running dog.

But one detail drew my close attention. The demonstrators sang a song called "America is the head of the snake." That's the song that then PLO leader Yasir Arafat led in singing at the Palestine National Council meeting almost 45 years ago. In other words, after 45 years of effort and especially the last 23 years in which America tried to help create a Palestinian Arab state, it has made zero progress toward winning Palestinian support or recognition of America's aid and efforts. The same story, of course, will be reproduced regarding Obama's efforts to show his respect for Islam and his empathy for Islamism.
[PJ Media]


How would Obama's speech play in Ramallah or Gaza? -Herb Keinon

While the US president's speech got roaring applause in Jerusalem after providing his listeners with a balanced amount of honey and vinegar, the question remains whether this was the audience Obama needs to convince.

US President Barack Obama delivered a passionate peace paean to a warm and excited crowd in Jerusalem on Thursday. That peace will arrive when a similar address receives a comparable ovation in Ramallah, let alone Gaza.

There were some other correctives to the Cairo speech Thursday as well. He didn't compare Palestinian suffering to that of the Jews, as was implied in the Cairo address, and he did not compare the Palestinian cause to that of the US civil rights movement, as was also hinted to in Cairo. Indeed, his reference Thursday to the US Civil Rights movement was how the Passover story served that movement as an inspiration.
[Jerusalem Post]


Obama and Netanyahu Show Unusual Solidarity - Scott Wilson

President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed an unusual degree of solidarity on a set of shared national security concerns that have divided them in the past.

The warm display by Obama and Netanyahu comes against the backdrop of a rapidly changing Middle East. Signs of a stronger U.S.-Israel relationship may put new pressure on Iran's leaders, who Obama said must be convinced that it is not in their interest to pursue a nuclear weapon.
(Washington Post)


Rockets Hit Israel as Obama Visits - Neri Brenner

Five Kassam rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza on Thursday morning, on the second day of President Obama's visit to Israel. One rocket hit the backyard of a house in Sderot.
(Ynet News)


Behind the Obama Visit - Ron Ben-Yishai

Washington is seeking to create an axis of stable Sunni countries to counter the Iran-led radical Shiite axis, which is seeking hegemony in the Middle East - with Israel as a quiet partner in this axis. For the sake of this cooperation Obama will likely ask Netanyahu to show restraint and calm in the Palestinian arena and ask Abbas to refrain from attempting any empty diplomatic provocations that will anger Israel and foment unrest in the territories.

With regard to Iran, there are fewer disagreements between Israel and the Obama administration. There is no argument over the intelligence information indicating that Iran's nuclear program is at an advanced stage. The sides also agree in principle on the need to exhaust the non-military means and that the West should have a credible military option that will be activated should Iran cross the red line, although the U.S. and Israel are still at odds over the definition of this red line.

The Americans argue that more than a year will pass before Iran reaches the point where it has the ability to produce a nuclear weapon within weeks of Khamenei's order. Israel claims a decision must be made this coming summer, or in the autumn at the latest - when Iran will have enough 20%-enriched uranium to produce one nuclear warhead.
(Ynet News)


Why Is Obama Going to Israel? - Michael Oren

The U.S. is economically, militarily and strategically engaged in the Middle East. And Israel keeps chaos from completely engulfing the area. Without Israel, jihadist forces which have killed Egyptians in Sinai and fired rockets at Jordan would spread unchecked as far north as Lebanon.

Israel has effectively deterred Hizbullah, confining its regional influence and blocking its stated vision of creating "a greater Islamic republic governed by...Iran." Syria long dreamed of annexing Lebanon but refrained for fear of Israeli intervention. If not for Israel, Lebanon as we know it might not even exist. In 1970, when Syria threatened to invade Jordan, Israel mobilized its army in Jordan's defense.

The Palestinian Authority as well remains extensively dependent on the Jewish state. Israel facilitates international trade for the Palestinians, supplies them with water and electricity, and furnishes thousands of jobs. And without Israeli warnings that spurred the international community to act, Iran would have long ago become a nuclear power.
The writer is Israel's ambassador to the U.S.
(Los Angeles Times)
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Obama in Wonderland

Israel rolls out the red carpet for President Obama

Palestinians spraypaint swastikas on a poster of US President Barack Obama in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Monday, March 18, 2013

 

 

A New Reality in U.S.-Israeli Relations -George Friedman

U.S. President Barack Obama is making his first visit to Israel as president.

In private I expect a sullen courtesy and in public an enthusiastic friendship, much as an old, bored married couple, not near a divorce, but far from where they were when they were young. Neither party is what it once was; each suspects that it is the other's fault.

In the end, each has its own fate, linked by history to each other but no longer united.
[Jewish World Review]
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77 Senators Call on Obama to Stand by Israel - Julian Pecquet

More than 3/4 of the U.S. Senate have signed on to a letter urging President Obama to stand by Israel ahead of his visit. The letter, led by Sens. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), and spearheaded by AIPAC, asks the president to warn the Palestinians against using their new status as a UN observer state to take action against Israel, and that their relationship with the U.S. would be jeopardized if they seek action against Israel at the International Criminal Court. "It is important to re-emphasize that the United States will not tolerate efforts to isolate or delegitimize Israel," the letter states.
(The Hill)


Obama in Israel: It's Not about the Lobby - Walter Russell Mead 

• The world continues to marvel at American support for the frequently isolated Jewish state.
• Recent Pew polls found that Americans sympathize more with the Israeli cause than with the Palestinian one by a margin of 49% to 12%, and they have consistently favored a "pro-Israel" foreign policy. When the House and the Senate overwhelming endorse pro-Israel resolutions, and when they tell presidents that they can't cut Israel's aid, those politicians are responding to the will of their constituents.
• Especially since 9/11, American public opinion has become significantly more pro-Israel. Most see Israel as an important strategic ally in a dangerous part of the world. Most think Israel isn't doing so badly considering its unique and difficult circumstances, and that Israel has every right to defend itself from terror attacks by any means necessary.
• The American public tunes out the "blame Israel" narrative. The public likes Israel, thinks it is a good thing, and rejoices when it does well.
• When President Obama lands in Israel, he will be representing a nation that has long seen the existence and security of a Jewish state as an important international achievement, as a step forward on humanity's long march to a better world.
• When he speaks to Israelis about America's commitment to their security, he will be speaking for one of the strongest and most durable points of consensus in all of American foreign policy. When he tells Israel that America stands with it, a solid majority of the American people are ready to back that up.
  
  The writer, Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, was until 2010 a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

(American Interest)
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BruceNote:
For an LATimes Slideshow of the beginning of Obama's trip to Israel click HERE

UPDATE:
For a short video summary of the day's events click HERE

IDF Rap

 

 

A poignant new rap video by LatmaTV, expressing pride in the Israel Defense Forces' mission

Reflections on Obama's Upcoming Israel Visit

U.S. Official Explains Obama's Israel Trip -Yitzhak Benhorin

Deputy U.S. National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes said that President Obama's upcoming visit to Israel "is not about trying to lay down a new initiative or complete our work on a particular issue; that, frankly, there's value in traveling precisely at a time when there is a new government in Israel and a new government in the United States and just having a broad strategic conversation."

"With a new government, you don't expect, again, to close the deal on any one major initiative. But you, on the other hand, want to begin a broad conversation about all these issues where we're cooperating on a day-to-day basis. And there are obviously going to be significant decisions in the months and years ahead about Iran, about Syria, about Israeli-Palestinian peace.... That's the way in which the President is approaching the trip."
(Ynet News)


If a Palestinian State Were Established -Khaled Abu Toameh

As President Obama prepares to visit the region, he would do well to take the following facts into consideration: Any agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian Authority would be rejected by a large number of Palestinians, especially Palestinian refugees who continue to insist on the "right of return" to their former villages inside Israel. A majority of Arabs and Muslims would also reject such a peace agreement, especially in the wake of the "Arab Spring."

Even if a Palestinian state were established in the West Bank, Hamas and other groups would work to take control of it and, with the help of Iran and al-Qaeda, turn it into a launching pad for attacking Israel and other neighbors.

The PA is in power thanks to the presence of the IDF in the West Bank. Ironically, ending Israeli "occupation" would also bring an end to Abbas' rule.

Any agreement reached under the auspices of the U.S. would be received with utmost suspicion. Already, many Palestinian activists are waging a campaign on Facebook and Twitter to "prevent Obama from desecrating the land of Palestine." Activists have called for "huge demonstrations" in the West Bank to protest against Obama's visit; they are even preparing shoes to throw at his motorcade.
(Gatestone Institute)


IDF Military Intelligence Chief Surveys Threats -Yoav Zitun

IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi said that "[f]or the first time in dozens of years Israel has four borders threatened by terrorist breaching."

Kochavi noted that "for the first time in many years the four main [regional] powers - Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt - are controlled by religious leadership.... The State of Israel is considered by them as unacceptable, so it will be increasingly difficult in the coming years to reach agreements and normalization."
(Ynet News)


Close the Peace Gap -David M. Weinberg

The best thing that President Obama can do to advance Middle East peace is to press the Palestinians to close the "peace gap" - to help Palestinian leaders bring their own constituency towards the levels of compromise and moderation that Israeli leaders have successfully achieved. Over the past thirty years, Israelis have gone from denying the existence of a Palestinian people to recognition of Palestinian peoplehood and national aspirations. Israel has even withdrawn altogether from Gaza, and allowed a Palestinian government to assume authority over 95% of West Bank residents.

The Palestinians, however, have utterly failed to move themselves away from rejectionism and towards peace with Israel. Many Palestinian political and religious figures still deny the historic ties of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel, and refuse to accept the legitimacy of Israel's existence in the Middle East as a Jewish state.

There is an enormous gap between the two peoples in their readiness for peace. The Palestinians are light years away from being ready to settle amicably with Israel, whereas Israelis are desperately eager to cut a fair deal with the Palestinians. Without a serious attempt to address the peace gap, any new diplomatic initiative will fail and will sink into the quicksand of Palestinian rejectionism.
(Israel Hayom)


Obama Not Coming to Press Israel -Herb Keinon

• Uzi Arad, who sat in on Obama-Netanyahu meetings as Netanyahu's national security adviser for the first two years of the prime minister's second term, is not among those who believe that foremost on President Obama's mind will be pressing Israel on the Palestinian issue.
• "There is nothing much to push hard on," he said. "It is clear that the realities allow for only so much maneuvering space." According to Arad, the U.S. administration has largely abandoned the sentiment that a final status agreement is lurking just around the corner, with Hamas' consolidation of power in Gaza and the resulting "hardening" of the Palestinian camp major reasons for the jettisoning of this assumption.
• The new Palestinian reality - Fatah in the West Bank, Hamas in Gaza - has altered the viability of the 2001 Clinton parameters. When Clinton presented his parameters calling for an Israeli withdrawal from some 95% of the West Bank and Gaza, and the division of Jerusalem, no one imagined Hamas would rule Gaza and "be armed to the teeth. That would have been considered a nightmare at the time." That this nightmare is now reality makes things look significantly different.
• He recommended limited, reciprocal steps for any peace process to work. "No one can expect Israel to take steps, but that the Palestinians do not. Unilateral steps will not fly, people are wiser and older. This should be a two-way street."

(Jerusalem Post)
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UPDATES: 

Will Obama Finally Crack the Israeli Code? -Jeffrey Goldberg

One of the reasons Obama is traveling to Israel is to correct the impression, partly created in his 2009 Cairo speech, that he doesn't understand Israel's history, and has no feeling for the underlying justice of its cause. The Cairo speech had a chilling effect because, to Israelis, the Holocaust alone doesn't justify the existence of their state. "The Holocaust doesn't explain why we're here," said Yossi Klein Halevi, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. "The Holocaust explains why we fight as fiercely as we do to stay here, but it doesn't explain our rootedness."

Halevi said Obama failed to acknowledge "Jewish indigenousness in the region," the idea that the uninterrupted Jewish presence in the lands of ancient Israel for more than 3,000 years justifies the modern Jewish claim to a state there.
(Bloomberg)
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Mideast Seeks a New Commitment from Obama -Michael Singh

President Obama's trip this week is about neither Israel nor Jordan. It is about the U.S. and the role we see for ourselves in the Middle East. Our allies want more American leadership in the region and greater clarity regarding U.S. policy on vital issues.

The administration should spend more time listening to our friends and trying to understand their interests. Our allies see Iran's regional activities, the disintegration of Syria and the rise of Islamism as threats. Their cooperation will depend less on our popularity than on convincing them that we share those interests and will act decisively.

Exercising leadership means building consensus, not following it; forming coalitions, not joining them; and shaping outcomes, not reacting to them. If Washington declines to take a leading role in addressing the Middle East's problems, the alternative is likely to be a proliferation of problems as the region's main players and outside supporters stake out their positions.
The writer, who worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council during 2005-2008, is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
(Washington Post)
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Bethlehem Rioters Set Fire to Pictures of Obama -Khaled Abu Toameh

Palestinians in Bethlehem set fire to pictures of U.S. President Barack Obama, saying he was not welcome in their city. PA policemen did not intervene. There were even indications that the PA leadership was encouraging or initiating some of the protests.

Scores of protesters gathered near Manger Square and threw shoes at a U.S. diplomatic vehicle that had arrived as part of preparations for Obama's visit to Bethlehem later this week.

Anti-Obama demonstrations are expected to take place in Ramallah and other Palestinian cities in the coming days.
(Jerusalem Post)
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Egypt Bans Documentary

 

 

 

Egypt Bans Film about Jewish Community -Ben Child

Egyptian security agencies have banned a film about the nation's once-thriving Jewish community just a day before it was due to open in cinemas, according to the documentary's producer, Haytham el-Khamissy.

The "Jews of Egypt" examines the lives of the country's estimated 65,000 Jews prior to their departure in the late 1950s due to Egypt's conflict with Israel. The film presents a harmonious vision of early 20th century multicultural Egypt and asks: "How did the Jews of Egypt turn in the eyes of Egyptians from partners in the same country to enemies?" - according to director Amir Ramses.
(Guardian-UK)
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