Don't overestimate the West's naiveté -Barry Rubin
Heads are very deep in the sand.
Pretend that a two-state solution is possible with a mostly radical Palestinian Authority and a far more extreme Hamas running Gaza, neither having done any preparation for real compromise and a lasting peace.
Pretend that this solution - which isn't going to happen - will solve all other problems, as if personal and state ambition, ethnic conflict, ideological battles and all sorts of disputes didn't exist in the region which have nothing to do with this. Not to mention that fact that any compromise peace would actually enrage large elements of opinion and galvanize the Islamists into even more violence.
Pretend that Iran's regime will be talked out of having nuclear weapons by either the charm of Western leaders or relatively limited sanctions when Teheran already knows everything is a big bluff.
Pretend that Islamists can be moderated when they think they're winning, believe themselves to be following the will of the deity and see daily proof that their rivals are eager to make concessions.
Pretend that Syria can be wooed into changing course when it is so dependent on its alliance with the Iranian regime, thinks that it's on the winning side and is tightening its control over Lebanon.
Pretend that Hizbullah and Hamas will settle down into moderation disciplined by the task of governing, the same theory discredited by the behavior of the PLO, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority over the last 16 years.
[Jerusalem Post]
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Heads are very deep in the sand.
Pretend that a two-state solution is possible with a mostly radical Palestinian Authority and a far more extreme Hamas running Gaza, neither having done any preparation for real compromise and a lasting peace.
Pretend that this solution - which isn't going to happen - will solve all other problems, as if personal and state ambition, ethnic conflict, ideological battles and all sorts of disputes didn't exist in the region which have nothing to do with this. Not to mention that fact that any compromise peace would actually enrage large elements of opinion and galvanize the Islamists into even more violence.
Pretend that Iran's regime will be talked out of having nuclear weapons by either the charm of Western leaders or relatively limited sanctions when Teheran already knows everything is a big bluff.
Pretend that Islamists can be moderated when they think they're winning, believe themselves to be following the will of the deity and see daily proof that their rivals are eager to make concessions.
Pretend that Syria can be wooed into changing course when it is so dependent on its alliance with the Iranian regime, thinks that it's on the winning side and is tightening its control over Lebanon.
Pretend that Hizbullah and Hamas will settle down into moderation disciplined by the task of governing, the same theory discredited by the behavior of the PLO, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority over the last 16 years.
[Jerusalem Post]
*
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