Struggle over Nuke Program -Greg Sheridan
•In Jerusalem, Washington and Tehran, three different clocks are running. Maintaining a real degree of uncertainty about what it might do is central to the Israeli government's strategy. The most senior Israelis believe they do have a military option against Iran. It's not a perfect option but they believe that even today they could severely degrade Iran's nuclear program with aerial strikes.
•But the Israeli military option is running out. First, the Iranians are attempting to immunize their program from aerial strike by moving as much of it as possible deep underground and by creating so many facilities they become too numerous to bomb.
•Second, there will come a point at which the Iranians have developed so much nuclear expertise in depth that even if their physical facilities were damaged they could quickly reconstitute these and press ahead to weapons.
•Some Americans believe if the Israelis strike Iran, the U.S. will pay the political costs anyway, so it would be better for the Americans to do the job and do it properly. Their clock is a bit different from the one the Israelis hear. Because of their vastly superior firepower, the Americans could strike Iran later, more devastatingly and more sustainably.
•If by the end of this year Iran has not negotiated the abandonment of its nuclear weapons program, if sanctions have not comprehensively crippled its economy and if its nuclear program has not been degraded by Israeli or U.S. air strikes, then it becomes overwhelmingly likely that Iran has survived the Western bluff and will in due course acquire nuclear weapons.
(The Australian)
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UPDATE:
Will Israel Attack Iran? -Ronen Bergman
After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012.
Perhaps in the small and ever-diminishing window that is left, the United States will choose to intervene after all, but here, from the Israeli perspective, there is not much hope for that. Instead there is that peculiar Israeli mixture of fear — rooted in the sense that Israel is dependent on the tacit support of other nations to survive — and tenacity, the fierce conviction, right or wrong, that only the Israelis can ultimately defend themselves.
[New York Times]
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1 comment:
If a country is intent on getting nuclear weapons, especially a country with oil resources and the willingness to do business with anyone, the likelihood is that they will acquire them despite. North Korea and Pakistan are a couple of examples. If they are attacked, they will dig the next holes deeper. The world seems unable to stop the flow of contraband equipment. It may be a lack of resolve for some, say China and Russia, or the inability to 100% control everything in the real world. What needs to change is the resolve. That is why sanctions are used, often but not always successfully. The only way to ensure compliance is by removing the desire for something by making the conditions to onerous to consider. The only other conditions that might seem as onerous is war, and that is unlikely with Russia and China still supporting Iran. Israel is not infallible and America lost much credibility with its falsified data of Iraqi WoMD and subsequent occupation that has not necessarily improved anything for anyone. Failed military attempts might well give cover and excuse for Iran to finish the nuclear program. The recent sabre rattling is clear evidence that the sanctions have teeth. Hopefully our leaders will have the resolve to use them (not only Obama, but backed up by a Congress that won;t blame him for the effects of short term price increase in oil) and other leaders will keep out of the way--Russia and China.
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