The New Piracy

'Barbary Pirates,' a 1681 painting by William van de Velde

Armed pirates on a Somali beach

How to Deal With Pirates -Michael Oren

[E]scalating assaults by pirates from Somalia [have] result[ed] in the capture of 14 ships and 250 of their crew members. Over 90 such attacks have occurred this year alone -- a three-fold increase since 2007.

Among their prizes, the pirates have seized a Ukrainian freighter crammed with Soviet-made battle tanks and, most recently, the tanker Sirius Star with $100 million worth of Saudi crude in its holds. These shipments are now being held off the Somali coast where the pirates are bargaining for their return.

21st-century piracy threatens international trade and confronts the U.S. with complex questions. Should the U.S. Navy, for example, actively combat the pirates, emulating the Indian warship that destroyed a Somali speedboat earlier this week? Can the U.S., which is already overstretched militarily in two conflicts, afford to assume responsibility for another open-ended operation in the same area? Or should America follow the example now being set by Saudi Arabia and various [other] states which have paid $25 million to $30 million in ransoms to the pirates this year alone?


America would be ill-advised to act unilaterally against the pirates. The good news is: It does not have to. In contrast to the refusal to unite with America during the Iraq War, the European states today share America's interest in restoring peace to the seas. Moreover, they have expressed a willingness to cooperate with American military measures against the Somali bandits.

Somali pirates will be emboldened by a lack of forceful response. Any attempt to bargain with them and to pay the modern equivalent of tribute will beget more piracy. [T]he only effective response to piracy is a coercive one.

[W]hile it is true that U.S. forces are deeply committed elsewhere in the region, addressing the threat of Somali pirates must be made a national priority while there is still time. Much like terrorism, piracy, unless uprooted, will mushroom.
[The Wall Street Journal]

Christmas Carols attack Israel

London Concert to Feature Anti-Israel Christmas Carols -Jonathan Petre

Anti-Israeli campaigners organizing a Christmas carol concert to be held at St. James Church in London have been condemned for rewriting traditional verses to attack Israel.

Far from bringing tidings of comfort and joy, the participants will instead sing about "war crimes" and the "oppression" of Palestinians. Former Archbishop of Canterbury Lord Carey has said that the rewriting of much-loved traditional carols for such partisan political purposes was deeply offensive.

(Daily Mail-UK)

Frustrated, Rice kicks sand at Israel

Rice: Israeli politics preventing peace -Hilary Leila Krieger

The fact that Israel and the Palestinians have not reached a peace agreement and will likely fail to do so by the end of 2008 is "largely due to" political turmoil in Israel, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said.

"Even though there was not an agreement by the end of the year, it is really largely because of the political situation in Israel," Rice told reporters.

[Jerusalem Post]

Advice piles high for Obama's Arab-Israeli Policy

Divisions Make Peace Agreement Impossible -Aaron David Miller

A conflict-ending agreement between Israelis and Palestinians may no longer be possible. Varying kinds of accommodations, cease fires, informal cooperation and temporary arrangements may still be possible. But the current situation on the ground between Israelis and Palestinians makes it impossible for leaders to reach an agreement.

The divisions between Hamas (itself divided) and Fatah (even more divided) are now geographic, political and hard to bridge. Until the Palestinian national movement finds a way to impose a monopoly over the forces of violence in Palestinian society, it cannot move to statehood.

The hallmark of any state's credibility is its control over all the guns. What Israeli prime minister could ever make concessions to a Palestinian leader who doesn't control all of the guns?

I would respectfully suggest to President-elect Obama, that he recognize there's no deal in this negotiation now. Manage it as best you can: but don't think you can solve it; you can't.
(Jerusalem Post)


Palestinian Civil War Casts Shadow Over Peace Talks -Jonathan Schanzer

When President-elect Obama sets out to rekindle Palestinian-Israeli peace, he will be faced with a vexing problem: Which Palestinian faction/non-state represents the Palestinians? With whom should Washington negotiate?

If it is Abbas' Fatah West Bank faction, Obama will be working with an unelected government while effectively ignoring the Hamas regime in Gaza. If the president negotiates with Hamas, he would be negotiating with terrorists - something that would fly in the face of U.S. policy dating back to the Nixon administration.

If Obama and his advisers fail to confront this critical issue, we risk engaging in yet another failed round of diplomacy.
(JTA)




Obama Security Adviser Wants NATO Force in West Bank -Aluf Benn

General James Jones, [pictured above] who is expected to become Obama's national security adviser, supports the deployment of an international force in the West Bank instead of the Israel Defense Forces. He also opposes Israel's demand to retain extensive security control over the territories even after a Palestinian state is established.

Israel has [said] that security control of the Jordan Valley is essential to prevent weapons from being smuggled into the West Bank. Israel also demands complete demilitarization of the future Palestinian state, Israeli control of border crossings, and Israeli early warning stations in the mountains.
(Ha'aretz)

UPDATE:

IDF Opposes Plan for NATO in West Bank -Yaakov Katz

Israeli defense officials said they were opposed to the deployment of a NATO force in the West Bank following an Israeli withdrawal, a plan supported by president-elect Obama's choice for U.S. national security adviser, Gen. James Jones. A top IDF officer said, "NATO is a very bad idea....No other country in the world has successfully dealt with terror like Israel has. There is a need for continuous combat; NATO will not want to endanger its soldiers on behalf of Israeli citizens."
(Jerusalem Post)

UN stands mute

Hizbullah Holds Exercises in Southern Lebanon -Roee Nahmias

Hizbullah troops conducted a series of military maneuvers in southern Lebanon, the Al-Arabiya television network reported. The exercises were carried out in defiance of UN Resolution 1701, which determined that the region south of the Litani River would be demilitarized.
(Ynet News)

UPDATE:
Israel: UN Downplaying Hizbullah Buildup - Herb Keinon
The UN has an interest in downplaying Hizbullah's rearmament and activities in southern Lebanon because it wants "industrial quiet" there, a senior Israeli diplomatic official said Wednesday. "The UN is denying any Hizbullah activity south of the Litani, even though Hizbullah admits to it," the official said.
(Jerusalem Post)

Muslim Druze emerge as Israeli leaders

Atlanta Consul General an Arab Who Represents Israel Well -John Christensen

Reda Mansour [pictured above], who arrived two years ago as the Israeli consul general in Atlanta, is an Arab and a Muslim. He is also a Druze, a sect which broke away from mainstream Islam 1,000 years ago and has often been persecuted by other Muslims since.

He is also an award-winning poet who mourns violence, hatred and death. Although Arabic is his first language - he speaks five in all - he writes poetry in Hebrew.

"Ambassador Mansour is one of the most thoughtful, passionate and eloquent representatives of the State of Israel that I've ever met. He's respected, appreciated and admired," says Steven A. Rakitt, president of the Jewish Federation of Greater Atlanta.

There is now a Druze general in the Israeli army, Druze in the intelligence service, and ten Druze in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - including the deputy foreign minister.
(Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Michael Jackson morphs into a Muslim

The way you Mecca me feel -Neil Syson

Michael Jackson has become a Muslim — and changed his name to Mikaeel.

The superstar, 50, donned Islamic garb to pledge allegiance to the Koran in a ceremony at a pal’s mansion in Los Angeles.

Brit singer [and Hamas supporter] Yousef Islam [pictured below], 60 — who was called Cat Stevens until he famously converted — turned up to help Jacko celebrate.
[The Sun-UK]

Pressing Obama on Israel begins before he takes office

Obama and Arab-Israel Peace
-Brent Scowcroft & Zbigniew Brzezinski [pictured above]

We believe that the Arab-Israeli peace process is one issue that requires priority attention.
Brent Scowcroft was national security adviser to Presidents Ford and Bush, Sr.
Zbigniew Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter.
(Washington Post)


Obama Will Find Middle East Peace Elusive -Con Coughlin

Already expectations are running high that Obama will dive headlong into negotiating a final settlement of the poisonous Arab-Israeli dispute.

President Clinton expended an enormous amount of energy and political capital on trying to reach a deal, starting with the signing of the Oslo Accords at the White House in 1993 and ending at Camp David at his presidency's end. The whole process fell into abeyance during the Bush presidency, not least because Bush was loath to expend his energy on the unattainable.

There is a general expectation that Obama will try to pick up where Clinton left off. Al-Qaeda developed its capability to conduct acts of mass terrorism on Clinton's watch, while Iran made significant strides in the development of its nuclear programs. Clinton failed to take effective action against either of these emerging threats because of his preoccupation with securing a Middle East peace deal. Consequently, the international environment in which Obama will find himself operating will be very different from that of 2000, and he will no longer be able to ignore the threats posed by al-Qaeda and Iran, however much he might want to achieve a historic peace deal.
(Telegraph-UK)

Trailblazing: Israel's Eco-garbage Park

Israel Turns 2,000-Acre Trash Dump into a Park -Brian Merchant

Hiriya, Tel Aviv's 2,000-acre garbage dump, was an ecological and aesthetic blight, a massive 230-foot mound of waste at its center.

But after an intensive national revitalization effort, the eyesore has reemerged as Ayalon Park [photos above], an eco-tourism attraction and one of the largest metropolitan parks in the world. At its base is a Recycling Center that uses the most innovative technologies.

(Treehugger)

Al-Qaeda's tantrum

Al-Qaeda Declares War on Obama -Judith Miller

Al-Qaeda has officially added President-elect Barack Obama to its enemies list. In a new video message, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number two, calls Obama a "House Negro" who "claims" to be Christian.

The video says that because Obama has chosen to support Israel and has threatened to strike Pakistan and send more troops to Afghanistan, he has decided to continue "the crimes of the American crusade."

Zawahiri also says that by choosing to abandon the faith of his Muslim father in favor of Christianity and to continue waging America's War on Terror, Obama has agreed to "pray the prayer of the Jews."

In case anyone misses the point of this diatribe (widely distributed on Arab television networks), the video portrays Obama wearing a yarmulke - a Jewish skullcap.
(FOX News)


Intelligence Expects Al-Qaeda's Appeal to Falter -Scott Shane

A new study by American intelligence agencies suggests that al-Qaeda could soon be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing. The report says that the group "may decay sooner" than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses...
(New York Times)

Iran: close to the nuclear edge

Iran has Nuclear Fuel for One Weapon -William J. Broad & David E. Sanger

Iran has now produced enough nuclear material to make a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been conducting inspections of Iran's main nuclear plant at Natanz, reported that as of early November, Iran had made 630 kilograms of uranium.

(New York Times)

Livni points to ceasefire farce, but does nothing

Israel Demands World Stop Ignoring Attacks

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni demanded in a telephone conversation with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, that the world stop ignoring attacks on Israel by Gaza militants.

Livni "demanded that the international community stop applying a policy of ignoring acts of terror aimed at hurting innocent people," her office said in a statement. "There is no way where the rocket fire against Israeli citizens can continue without retaliation from the Israeli government," Livni said.
(AFP)


Inside Gaza's Rocket Factories -Janis Mackey Frayer

There are rocket "factories" and storage facilities tucked in alleys across the Gaza Strip, empty rooms or garages in concrete block buildings. The room we were shown bristled with rockets in varying sizes and stages of readiness. We were also shown drum-like roadside bombs stuffed with ball bearings and shrapnel.

Abu Abir, a leader in the Al-Nasser Brigades explained, "We show you this to send a message to the Israelis that we are getting stronger."
(CTV News-Canada)


Military Consequences of a Gaza Ceasefire Collapse -Jeffrey White

Hamas used the period after Israel's August 2005 withdrawal to expand its forces to the point where it could prevail over Fatah and emerge as the only serious military and political power in Gaza. With Israel gone and Fatah defeated, Hamas gained control of Gaza's military and intelligence resources and infrastructure once controlled by the PA.

The subsequent ceasefire agreement created even better conditions for Hamas' military ambitions by freeing the organization from the threat of Israeli raids and incursions.

Hamas aspires to emulate the military capabilities of Hizbullah.

In future clashes, the IDF would be confronted with a better organized and trained force with more sophisticated arms, especially antitank weapons, and improved defenses.

Despite its military improvements and ambitions, Hamas could not stand up to the IDF in an all-out fight. But there is little likelihood of such a direct conflict.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Hezbollah Scouts: with chilling photos

Hezbollah Marshals the Young via Scout Troops -Robert F. Worth

This is the vanguard of Hezbollah’s youth movement, the Mahdi Scouts.

Some of the graduates gathered at this ceremony will go on to join Hezbollah’s guerrilla army, fighting Israel in the hills of southern Lebanon. Others will work in the party’s bureaucracy. The rest will probably join the fast-growing and passionately loyal base of support that has made Hezbollah the most powerful political, military and social force in Lebanon.
[New York Times]

Saddam's Uranium?

U.S. Removes 550 Tons of Nuclear Precursor from Iraq -Carter Andress

[I]n a significant development on weapons of mass destruction (WMD) inexplicably not well-covered by the media - the U.S. military removed from Iraq 550 metric tons of yellowcake uranium, a necessary precursor to the development of nuclear weapons. With this radioactive material, all that was needed to create up to 140 nuclear bombs was the centrifuge equipment.
(Washington Times)

Straight talk from Peres

Peres: "Let the Palestinians Stop Shooting and They Won't Suffer"

Israeli President Shimon Peres [pictured at left] told a news conference in London that trade restrictions on goods made in Jewish settlements hurt Palestinian workers in the settlements and if they were fired due to a crackdown on exports it would increase unemployment.

Asked how he justified the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, Peres said: "Why should they suffer? Let them stop shooting and they won't suffer."
(Reuters)


UPDATE:

Israeli President Knighted by British Queen -Anshel Pfeffer

Britain's Queen Elizabeth II awarded President Shimon Peres honorary knighthood on Thursday in an official ceremony in Buckingham Palace in London.
(Ha'aretz)

Jordanian option resurrected...again

"New" Mideast Plan -Oakland Ross

Giora Eiland [pictured at right], former head of Israel's National Security Council, [proposed] a complex arrangement involving three-way land swaps, an enlarged Gaza Strip, and the direct involvement of both Jordan and Egypt in a peace deal that would look very different from any under consideration today.

Regarding the West Bank, Jordan might consider reclaiming the sovereignty it exerted between 1948 and 1967, in order to head off the likely alternative - an eventual Hamas takeover. Under this arrangement, Palestinians there would be granted autonomy in all areas except foreign affairs and state security, which would be administered by Amman.
(Toronto Star-Canada)


UPDATE:

Olmert, Barak on Secret Visit to Jordan

Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Barak paid a secret visit to King Abdullah in Jordan, Israel Radio reported. They told the king that Israel could not sit back for long while Gaza militants continued to fire rockets and mortars at Israel.
(Ha'aretz)

Blogger ceased by Iranian regime

Iranian Blogger Arrested in Tehran -Dudi Cohen

An Iranian blogger who recently visited Israel was arrested in Tehran, an Iranian website reported. The blogger, Hossein Derakhshan [pictured above], who runs one of the most popular blogs in his country, returned to Iran several weeks ago after a long stay in Canada.

[H]e attended a seminar on blog writing held at the Ben Gurion University in Beersheba. During that trip he told Ynet that the main objective of his visit was to "break the taboo" of Israeli-Iranian relations.

For many Iranians Derakhshan symbolized the model for a successful, well-known blogger who travels around the world promoting democracy and human rights in his country. He has also done a lot to promote the Iranian blogosphere and even wrote a manual for blog writing in Farsi.
(Ynet News)

Making Palestinian victimization: blame the real victim for defending herself

Don't Compare Israel's Security Fence to Nazi Ghettoes -Deborah Lipstadt

In the Emory Wheel [Emory University's student newspaper] of Nov. 14 there was a disturbing cartoon [pictured above] comparing the Nazi ghettoes with the separation fence the Israelis have erected on the West Bank. This equation is historically spurious and highly prejudicial. The Germans put Jews from throughout Europe in ghettoes to either die a slow death of starvation, deprivation and disease or a faster death with a bullet or poison gas.

Irrespective of what one thinks of the fence/wall (most of it is a fence), it was not built for this purpose. It was built as a defensive mechanism. Even if one opposes it, one cannot ignore the fact that it has tremendously reduced bombings of Israeli targets. There was no fence/wall before there were these bombings of busses, schools and other civilian targets. It was built in response to them.

Whatever one thinks of Israeli policy, to describe it as akin to the Nazi policy of murdering all of European Jewry is to engage in anti-Semitism and a form of Holocaust denial.
(Emory Wheel)

Israel ready to crush Iranian nukes

All Options Are on the Table

In order to stop Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb, "We are ready to do whatever is demanded of us," Israeli Air Force General Ido Nehushtan told Der Spiegel in an interview.

"The Iranian regime is not only a problem for the Air Force or the State of Israel. It is a problem for the entire free world. It is shameful that 70 years after the Reichskristallnacht (Night of Broken Glass) there are still heads of state who call for the destruction of our people."

Question: Iran's nuclear facilities are spread around the country and are partly located underground. Is it even technically possible to destroy them?

Nehushtan: "I can only say this: It is not a technical or logistical question."
(Der Spiegel-Germany)

Iran: Terms of Engagement

Engaging Iran's Supreme Leader -Mehdi Khalaji

Ayatollah Khamenei [pictured above] as the supreme leader and the commander in chief of the armed forces, has the ultimate supervision over the nuclear program, Iran's military strategy in the region, and Iran's foreign policy in general. Any attempt to reach Iran's government is more likely to be successful if it involves the supreme leader.

Khamenei considers himself not only the leader of the Islamic Republic but also the highest authority on Islamic ideology in the world. Because the Islamic Republic has failed to meet its economic, cultural, and social promises, Khamenei has made anti-Americanism the cornerstone of Islamic ideology. "America" for Khamenei does not refer to a country, but rather to a point of view diametrically opposed to Islamic ideology, on which the Iranian regime relies for its legitimacy. Allowing the level of "hatred" toward the U.S. to diminish is tantamount to recognizing the supremacy of "Western culture."

The first step for dealing directly with the Iranian government is to make its supreme leader responsible. Addressing him directly and publicly with a call to initiate a dialogue will close the exit doors available to him and require him to make a decision - either war or peace.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Glick predicts Obama will sacrifice Israel

The perils ahead -Caroline Glick

Hamas terror operative Ahmad Youssef told the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper that in the months leading up to his election, Obama's advisers held steady contacts with the leaders of the terror group in Gaza, and had asked that Hamas keep the meetings secret in order not to harm Obama's chances of being elected.

Both Obama's transition team and Hamas leaders were quick to deny Youssef's statements. Yet, together with the earlier Times of London story about Malley's contacts with Hamas and the new revelations about Malley serving as Obama's unofficial Middle East envoy, the Al-Hayat report has the ring of truth.

What is most alarming about Obama's emerging foreign policy toward Iran and its proxies on the one hand and Israel on the other is that it will cause actual harm to the Jewish state.

As for direct talks with Iran itself, the question immediately arises, what could Obama offer Teheran in exchange for an end to its nuclear program that hasn't already [been] offered?

What it can offer is Israel.

Obama's top nuclear nonproliferation adviser, Joe Cirincione, has repeatedly advocated placing Israel's nuclear arsenal on the negotiating table and offering it up in exchange for an Iranian pledge to end its nuclear program.

[I]f as Cirincione advocates, Obama intends to place Israel's nuclear arsenal on the negotiating table, he will effectively be giving Iran a green light to attack Israel with nuclear weapons.

All of the Obama team's post-election/pre-inaugural foreign policy signals place Israel's next government - which will only be elected on February 10 - in an extraordinarily difficult position.

It is not just that their positions make clear that the Obama administration will do nothing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Obama team's pre-inaugural signals indicate strongly that Israel's next government will need to strike Iran's nuclear installations before two rapidly approaching deadlines.

The strike will have to occur before the mullahs enrich sufficient quantities of highly enriched uranium to produce nuclear bombs. And Israel will need to neutralize Iran's nuclear program before the Obama administration begins implementing America's new foreign policy.
[Jerusalem Post]

The long arm of justice

Synagogue Bomb Suspect Arrested -Richard Esposito

Twenty-five years after a terror attack [pictured above] at a Paris synagogue, a Canadian professor was arrested today on charges that he was involved in the 1980 bombing that killed four people and wounded at least 20 others, Canadian authorities told ABC News.

The professor, Hassan Diab, 54, was arrested with the assistance of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police on a provisional arrest warrant and a request for extradition granted to French authorities by a Canadian court.

Diab has by all accounts lived a quiet life in Canada. Canadian authorities braced for possible public backlash over their willingness to assist in the arrest.
[ABC News]

Muslim Moderates Speak Out at India pow-wow

Indian Muslims Condemn Terrorism

A conference attended by more than 6,000 Muslim clerics, scholars and community leaders in India has endorsed a religious ruling against terrorism.

The ruling said that Islam rejected all kinds of bloodshed and the killing of innocents for selfish and politically motivated gains. There are more than 138 million Muslims in India.

(BBC News)

Hamas with suits on: Palestinian Authority shows its feathers

PA Prime Minister Omits Judaism Among Faiths Devoted to Jerusalem

Jerusalem is holy to two religions - Islam and Christianity, PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad [pictured at left] said at the UN-organized interfaith peace conference.

Fayad failed to mention the importance of Israel's capital to the Jewish people, Israel Radio reported. "Jerusalem is home to the third most holy place to Islam, the place where Muhammad rose to the heavens, and the place where Jesus, the Christian, was resurrected," the Palestinian leader proclaimed.
(Jerusalem Post)


UPDATE:

Proving the Historic Jewish Identity of Jerusalem -Rivkah Fishman-Duker

For ancient Greek and Roman pagan authors, Jerusalem definitely was a Jewish city, as seen in references to Jerusalem from nearly twenty different sources, dating from the third century BCE to the third century CE. These texts indicate unanimous agreement that Jerusalem was Jewish by virtue of the fact that its inhabitants were Jews, it was founded by Jews, and the Temple, located in Jerusalem, was the center of the Jewish religion. Despite the negative views of Jews and Judaism expressed by authors such as Manetho, Apion, Tacitus and Juvenal, the Jewish identity of Jerusalem is always clear and never a subject of dispute.

These ancient texts disprove recent attempts by Muslims and others to deny the historic connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem and the location of the Temple in Jerusalem through fabrications and lies.
(Jewish Political Studies Review)

Christians under Palestinian rule

Palestinian Columnist Criticizes Persecution of Christians

'Abd Al-Nasser Al-Najjar wrote in the Palestinian daily Al-Ayyam:

Christians are being persecuted not only in Iraq, but in most Arab countries, regardless of their numbers there. They are subjected to every possible kind of discrimination, as well as expulsion.

In Palestine, the trend is the same. I refer here to actions of the past 20 years involving the confiscation of Christian property, especially in Bethlehem, Ramallah, and el-Birah...
(MEMRI)

After 60 years, Arabs stay in the room

Arab Leaders Stay, Listen to Israeli -Betsy Pisik

A UN conference on religious tolerance broke new ground when a half-dozen Arab leaders - including Saudi King Abdullah [pictured above] for the first time ever - stayed in their seats while an Israeli president spoke.
(Washington Times)

UPDATE:

The Saudis' Sham UN Faith-Confab Farce -Ali al-Ahmed

Several Middle Eastern and world leaders met in New York this week under UN auspices to discuss the world state of religious freedom, part of an initiative of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz on religious dialogue. Abdullah, an authoritarian ruler, leads one of the most (if not the most) religiously oppressive regimes, which has amply earned its nickname "Hatred's Kingdom." Jews, Christians and all other non-Muslims are not allowed to practice their faith inside the kingdom. Saudi schoolbooks teach that Christians and Jews are the eternal enemies of Islam.

The obvious question that the West should be asking these leaders during the conference is: What are they doing in their own countries to stop religious oppression?
The writer is director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington.
(New York Post)

Sinking to a new low

VideoBite:
A female legal commentator on Al-Arabiya television recommends systematic rape of Israeli women. Her justification is chilling.

Al-Arabiya is based in the United Arab Emirates and heavily funded by Saudi Arabia, two US allies.
[Hat tip: HotAir.com]

Flipping Syria: Pipe Dream

Syria Can't Be Flipped -Michael Rubin

"Not talking doesn't make us look tough -- it makes us look arrogant," President-elect Barack Obama declares. Throughout his campaign, he has promised renewed engagement. Chief among his diplomatic targets is Syria...

It is tempting to believe that U.S. diplomacy can flip Syria. Alas, as audacious as Obama's hope might be, Syria cannot be flipped. It may be fashionable to blame Bush for the failure to seize a Damascus olive branch, but the real problem has less to do with any U.S. administration and much more to do with Arab history and political culture.

For more than a millennium, Damascus, Baghdad and Cairo have competed for the leadership of the Arab world. [N]ever has there been solidarity among all three. Unity is not an Arab virtue.

Uncomfortable under the same Cold War umbrella as its rivals, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat switched back to the U.S. camp and, some 30 years ago, recognized Israel. Sadat flipped Egypt because he understood leadership meant either dominating or standing apart from his fellow Arabs. Washington eased Egypt's transition with more than $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid; more than $50 billion in sum so far. Iraq flipped, but by force, at a cost far higher.

Diplomats seeking to flip Assad are asking him to commit political suicide. Aid will not facilitate. For Assad to settle for less than Egypt's aid package would be to confirm his subordination to Hosni Mubarak. A higher package is outside reality: Even the most profligate congressmen cannot stomach another commitment of $50 billion, an amount that could be driven even higher once Tehran begins a bidding war for Syrian loyalty.

So why does Assad flirt with the West? Assad can pocket irreversible incentives: A reprieve from the Rafik Hariri murder investigation, concessions on territorial disputes, an end to sanctions and heightened trade.

When the time comes to reciprocate, Assad can walk away, as his father so often did, leaving Washington with far less leverage than before.

Today, Obama's supporters see policy as the difference between good and Bush. They sing change, but to privilege rhetoric above reality is dangerous hubris.
[Forbes.com]

Arafat lives

Abbas at Arafat Memorial: We'll Continue Martyrs' Path -Ali Waked

"The Palestinian leadership will continue to follow Yasser Arafat's path until a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital is established," PA leader Mahmoud Abbas said during a memorial service marking Arafat's death.

Abbas said, "The path of the shahids (martyrs) - Arafat, George Habash (founder of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) and (former Hamas spiritual leader) Sheikh Ahmed Yassin - is the path that we cherish."
(Ynet News)

The resurrection of Bill Clinton?

A New Special Envoy for the Middle East -Marty Peretz

The London Financial Times' first recommendation to Obama was about appointing Bill Clinton [pictured above] as "special envoy for the Middle East." By my count, there have been perhaps a dozen special envoys to the region in the last dozen years.

The first prerequisite for any solution to this conflict and for the acceptance of a real Palestinian entity is that the Palestinians demonstrate concretely that they do not still yearn to vitiate a Jewish sovereignty in the Land of Israel.
(New Republic)
[Vitiate: to invalidate]

Israel's Syria strike vindicated

Diplomats: Uranium Found at Syrian Site

Samples taken from a Syrian [nuclear] site bombed by Israel last year contained traces of uranium combined with other elements that merit further investigation, diplomats said.
(AP/MSNBC)

Lousy propects for peace

Peace Talks? -Editorial

Here is the reality: Security in the West Bank continues to hang by a thread.

Palestinian forces cannot maintain security control on their own. If it were not for nightly Israeli raids in search of terror cells, it is an open question whether Abbas would be able to maintain power in the face of a growing challenge from Hamas.

As for Gaza, Hamas rule has transformed the Strip into what is perhaps the world's No. 1 terrorist statelet. Given these realities, it is unclear precisely what Secretary of State Rice hopes to achieve with her latest visit.
(Washington Times)

Ancient earring brings "Jerusalem of gold" to life

2,000-year-old gold earring found in Jerusalem -Shawna Ohm

Israeli archeologists have discovered a 2,000-year-old gold earring [pictured above] beneath a parking lot next to the walls of Jerusalem's old city, the Israel Antiquities Authority said.

The discovery dates back to the time of Christ, during the Roman period, said Doron Ben-Ami, director of excavation. The piece was found in a Byzantine structure built several centuries after the jeweled earring was made, showing it was likely passed down through generations, he said.

It must have belonged to someone of the elite in Jerusalem," Ben-Ami said. "Such a precious item, it couldn't be one of just ordinary people." [T]he piece of jewelry was "astonishingly well-preserved." Finds from the Roman period are rare in Jerusalem because the city was destroyed by the Roman Empire in the first century A.D.

"It adds to the visual history of Jerusalem," Gibson added, saying it brings attention to the life of women in antiquity.
[Associated Press]

[Hat Tip: LHWrites]

Israel out of the media spotlight

No News Is Good News -Michael Oren [pictured below, right]

Israel is no longer in the news in Washington. For the past month, at least, Israel - indeed, the entire Middle East - has been knocked out of the newspapers and from television screens by the financial crisis and the presidential election. Israeli events that once would have made headlines in America are now relegated to the back pages, if not unreported altogether.

This is good news for those who felt that the Jewish state is unfairly placed under a media microscope.

[P]resident-elect Obama is likely to lack both the time and financial resources to take on a time-consuming and potentially expensive peace initiative. Nor will he, with domestic newspapers crammed with stories of layoffs and foreclosures, be under immediate pressure to embark for the distant Middle East.

(Ha'aretz)

Middle East Reflections on Obama victory

Iran Sends Mixed Signals on Obama Victory -Borzou Daragahi

Tehran feels Obama represents [a] potential new threat to Iran, analysts say. A unifying figure like Obama might help convince fence-sitters such as India, China, Turkey, Malaysia and Russia to synchronize their Tehran policies with the U.S.

"There is the thought that Obama could be as dangerous as Bush, but in a different way," said Abolfazl Amouei, a political scientist at Imam Sadeq University in Tehran. "In Iran, Democrats don't have a good reputation. They were the first ones who started the sanctions under President Clinton."
(Los Angeles Times)


The Challenge -David Horovitz

Blocking Iranian Islamist ambition is central to the vow at the heart of Obama's victory speech: "To those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security: We support you."

The stirring sentiment will count for nothing if this confrontation is ducked. For only by thwarting the death-cult Islamists can the new leader of the free world liberate the moderates who seek reconciliation.
(Jerusalem Post)

Charting MidEast waters: Obama's challenge

Next U.S. President Will Be a Wartime Leader -Michael Eisenstadt

The next U.S. president will face unprecedented challenges and dangers in the Middle East, with few good options and precious little time to waste.

At the current reported rate of enrichment, Iran might have enough uranium by late 2009 necessary for its first bomb. Iran's progress toward acquiring nuclear weapon capabilities is already transforming the regional security environment in ways inimical to U.S. interests.

The U.S. should avoid public advances toward Iran prior to [their] June 2009 presidential elections because Iranian President Ahmadinejad might claim credit for any diplomatic progress, thus increasing his electoral prospects.

Another Arab-Israeli war is a near certainty in the next four years. The current Israeli-Hamas ceasefire is unlikely to last indefinitely, and Israel eventually will reenter Gaza to remove the rocket threat or dismantle Hamas' terror and governmental infrastructure.

In Lebanon, Hizbullah, with the help of Syria and Iran, has rebuilt its rocket forces. [T]he U.S. needs to coordinate with Israel so that the next war is much shorter, and succeeds in significantly weakening Hizbullah and undermining the interests of its Syrian and Iranian patrons.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Bipartian MidEast Policy

What to Do About Iran -Carol Giacomo

Inside Washington's policy circles these days - in studies, commentaries, meetings, Congressional hearings and conferences - reasonable people from both parties are seriously examining the so-called military option to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, along with new diplomatic initiatives.

A report by the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center, founded by four former senators - Republicans Robert Dole and Howard Baker and Democrats Tom Daschle and George Mitchell, explores such strategies as blockading Iran's gasoline imports, but it also says that "a military strike is a feasible option and must remain a last resort."

Ashton Carter, a senior Pentagon official in the Clinton administration, wrote a paper for the Center for a New American Security that asserts military action "is an element of any true option."
(New York Times)

Surprise history lesson: 2 state solution dates from 1919

Chaim Weizmann (left) and Emir Faisal I, signed
what became known as
The Faisal Weizmann Agreement of 1919,
which called for an Arab and a Jewish state to exist side-by-side.

Mr. Weizmann, wearing Arab dress as a sign of friendship, went on to be the first president of Israel.
[Early Zionists and Arabs by Judea Pearl]

[The Middle East Quarterly]