Thursday, October 26, 2006

Predicting the future in Iraq

What Osama Wants - Peter Bergen

[F]or the United States to pull entirely out of that country right now, as is being demanded by a growing chorus of critics, would be to snatch an unqualified disaster from the jaws of an enormous blunder.

A total withdrawal from Iraq would play into the hands of the jihadist terrorists. Al Qaeda’s most important short-term strategic goal is to seize control of a state, or part of a state, somewhere in the Muslim world. Such a jihadist state would be the ideal launching pad for future attacks on the West.
[New York Times]

3 comments:

LHwrites said...

While it is true that we cannot pull out of iraq without leaving behind a disaster, the question is really can we stay without continuing a disaster, and is there any way we can end with anything better than a disaster if we stay. That is the question that has not been answered, nor possibly can be until the time has passed and we see. It is inconsequential what anyone in this administration, that mired us in this catastrophe, has to say. Also, other politicians and the press have offered little guidance as we spiraled into the abyss we have landed in. We have already created, aided and abetted, the formation of another conservative, angry, islamic state. We have brought Al-Qaeda into one of the few arab countries where it turns out it did not have an effective presence. We have deposed a leader who feared Al-Qaeda (for similar but different reasons) as much as the Western World. We have been seen killing and torturing muslim citizens,after invading their country and then calling them insurgents in their own land, by the entire muslim world. Many pundits and politicians predicted that bringing democracy to Iraq would create a shining example for the rest of the middle-east, but they were of course mistaken and also underestimated our own Presidential administrations ability to committ heinous, evil acts similar to the Iraqi regime we deposed, thus inflaming anger against us when there was, perhpas, a little hope, maybe. There is no doubt that if we pull out now we will leave behind a disaster, but the question remians, if we stay, and more of our nation's children die in combat, can we avoid this?

Bruce said...

"The best laid plans of mice and men..."

It's true that Iraq didn't go by anyone's script, but it remains to be seen how it turns out...we probably won't know the multidimensional results fully for some years.

It remains to be seen whether purple fingers [of Iraqi voters] is the image that will dominate history, or the image of civil strife and bloodshed.

Critics say that the attempt/s to impose democracy is foolish. But let's not close the history book before it is written. Transformation of Islamic societies is the centerpiece of all political speculation on the MidEast, from right, left & center.

LHwrites said...

When it suits the pundits, an Islmaic society like the Palestinians or Iran are black and white--evil terrorists hell bent on destroying Israel and the world. Then, when it is American credibility on the line---the jury is still out. I'll posit this: the Iraq war was an unqualified failure and regardless of what the future holds, it will remain so. The majority of Iraqis did not welcome us with open arms and roses. The voting did not create a unified government. Many Iraqis die every day. Many have been found to be tortured just like in the old Saddam days. Their infrastructure is a mess, their oil production is behind schedule, and only companies like Haliburton have gained anything from the turmoil. The fact that someday we may end up, between our army and the insurgents, killing off enough of one faction or another, that their will be some facade of peace, will never change that this did not do the Iraqis or the American Armend Forces any favors. The administration did not understand what it was getting into, does not understand the struggles between the different Islamic factions going back decades and centuries, and does not have a clue how to proceed. Just like peace may come to Africa, but will never bring back the numerous factions driven to the brink of extinction by genocide, the world's efforts will always be better than never, but also are they successful when they started so late? How many have to die, what collateral damage must you suffer, before you have failed to accomplish your goals? Just as the world, ignoring what went on in World War II, failed to prevent the holocaust, even though the free world prevailed in the war, so too, the clocks cannot be reversed on Iraq. And sadly, the worst may not even have been written yet, based on some asessments. Yes, it may get worse, it may even get better, but nothing about our mission has been accomplished. And there comes a point where you may claim a victory, but you cannot claim success.