Monday, August 13, 2012

Will Israel Strike Iran in October?

Will Israel Help Re-Elect Obama? -Lauri B. Regan

Obama may actually be handed a gift in October, and depending upon what he does with that opportunity, it may provide him with a guaranteed win on November 6.

The Washington Free Beacon is reporting that according to U.S. intelligence experts, Israel is gearing up for an October attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. And while Obama has done everything in his power to prevent Israel from conducting a military strike, including leaking various national security secrets pertaining to such an attack, affording Iran time to further its goals through prolonged and ineffectual diplomatic games, and withholding sophisticated weaponry that would increase the chances of a successful Israeli strike, Israel may not have a choice but to proceed without a nod or assistance from Washington. But why October?

And as the clock ticks, Obama is calculating that the faux promises and behind-the-scenes pressure from the leader of the free world, and only proven friend of the tiny country that causes him angst, will ultimately result in the Israelis tabling a strike and working on his timetable. And to that end, Obama has likely miscalculated. For Israelis no longer trust the United States under the present administration. If they believe that come October, Obama has a solid chance of a second term, it is probable that they will endeavor upon a military intervention to prevent Iran's nuclear capability.

Israel cannot take a chance that Obama wins, for if that occurs, Israel knows that Obama will most assuredly not provide humanitarian aid in the face of retaliatory strikes, military aid to help resupply the IDF with equipment and arms it may need to complete what it was forced to start on its own, and diplomatic cover at the U.N. as the world condemns the attack, as it most certainly will. The world may breathe a sigh of relief that once again the Israelis accomplished what no other country had the nerve to do, but those thoughts will remain the stuff of off-mike whispers never intended as a defense of the Jewish state.

Barack Obama is no fool, either. He also wants to win a second term. If Israel is forced to strike, Obama and his advisers understand that the majority of Americans support Israel and will expect the administration to do everything in its power to ensure Israel's success. In such a case, even if Obama does the bare minimum to help Israel -- vetoing a resolution against her at the U.N., ensuring safe airspace over Iraq and perhaps refueling at U.S. military bases in the region, ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remain open and safe for oil tanker passage, and otherwise publicly supporting her in the face of international condemnation -- he will likely claim full credit for the success of the mission, claim that he gave the green light and was always in favor of the plan, and lie once again to the American people in a speech full of "I"s and "me"s.

And therein lies the irony of Obama forcing Israel to put its citizens and soldiers at risk to do something that he should be authorizing the U.S. military to do. Israel may clinch Obama's second term while ensuring its own short-term survival

[American Thinker]

Report: Israel Will Have to Tackle Iran Alone -Michal Shmulovich

A day after White House spokesman Jay Carney claimed the U.S. would know if Tehran is close to obtaining a nuclear weapon, Israel's Channel 2 news quoted "sources in Jerusalem" saying the Americans "didn't see 9/11 coming."

Channel 2 News' diplomatic correspondent Udi Segal said Israel does not believe the U.S. will take military action as Iran closes in on the bomb. The U.S. has not provided Israel with details of an attack plan. President Obama has not promised to attack Iran if all else fails. Conditions cited by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta for an American attack do not calm Israeli concerns. And Obama has a record of seeking UN and Arab League approval before action. All these factors underline the growing conviction that Israel will have to tackle Iran alone, the TV report said.

Netanyahu "is convinced that thwarting Iran amounts to thwarting a plan to destroy the Jewish people," Segal said. 
(Times of Israel)


John Vagabond said...

As an ex-resident of the ME, I think I'm right to assert that the West's advantage lies in the fact that most of the Gulf Countries, GCC protocols notwithstanding, don't trust each other. However, there has been a hardening of Islamic governmental control across the whole region - Kuwait, where I used to live, has elected the most Islamist parliament for three decades. The US bases in Kuwait and Saudi are crucial if, in the event of major conflict, the Straits of Hormuz are compromised, but it would seem that permission to deploy by local authorities may not be quite as automatic or straightforward as they once were.

Bruce said...

I am most interested in seeing how Israel deploys its Air Force should they hit Iran [who will give them ground and/or air support].

But you are correct, the fabric of US influence has waned substantially. Considering how much we've invested in the region [blood that is] it's a shame.