Obama's Misplaced Mideast Optimism: foreign-policy "successes" won't endure
-Daniel Pipes, PhD
Confidently commenting on the execution of Libya's long-time dictator, Barack Obama stated that "the death of Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi showed that our role in protecting the Libyan people, and helping them break free from a tyrant, was the right thing to do." About his own decision to pull all U.S. troops from Iraq in two months' time, Obama asserted that "In Iraq, we've succeeded in our strategy to end the war." He then drew triumphalist conclusions from these developments, bragging that they show "The tide of war is receding" and "we've renewed American leadership in the world."
But the Middle East teaches caution; much will probably go wrong in Libya and Iraq. Obama, I predict, will rue his rash boasts.
In Iraq, Obama's claim about ending the war reminds one of George W. Bush's much-ridiculed "Mission Accomplished" speech of May 1, 2003, when he prematurely announced that "In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed" just as the real war had just begun. With U.S. forces now pulling out, Tehran can begin in earnest to take over the country and turn it into a satrapy (the ancient Persian word for a subordinate polity).
Despite American warnings, Tehran already interferes in Iraq's politics, sponsors militias, supports terrorism, and has sent its own forces into the country – and is preparing to do more. As Max Boot writes, the withdrawal of American troops means that the "risks of a catastrophic failure in Iraq now rise appreciably..."
If Iranian efforts succeed quickly, they might do significant damage to Obama's electoral prospects a year from now. "Who lost Iraq?" could become a potent Republican battle cry. That [candidate] Obama declared American efforts to stabilize Iraq a "complete failure" sets him up to take the blame for that very failure.
Even if Iraq holds until the U.S. elections in 2012, I predict that in 5-10 years the American effort in Iraq (and, similarly, in Afghanistan), with all those expenditures and lives lost, will have been for naught. When future analysts seek what went wrong, they might well focus on Obama's clueless statements.
[National Review Online]
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3 comments:
I agree with Pipes, which is rare, on at least one point--years from now we will regret Iraq, but not because he thinks. It won;t be a failure. It is and always was a failure. Obama did not make an error pulling out the troops, the end of the war was always coming, and Iraq could not come up with an agreement that would have kept our remaining soldiers safe and effective. Obama rightly pulled out rather than allow our soldiers to be unsafe or to sit by and fail. I do not need to write about Iraq because I and so many others have done so before. If Afghanistan is ever a regret, it should be that when the opportunity was there we took our eye off the ball and did not finish the job many years ago. Obama has nothing to regret. He has been doing the job on Terrorist leaders, without torture, that America failed to do for years. Whatever happens in Libya, we supported the Libyans while they overthrew a dictator that had supported terrorist acts against our nation and the free world. As for other areas of foreign policy, any administration does not telegraph its moves or predict the future. We do not know what Obama will do next, but except for his mishandling of Israel, we have not seen any clear missteps by him in the MidEast. Iran is an ongoing story, not a written page. If Bush had gotten bin Laden and the others, and helped overthrow Gaddafi, the conservatives would be carving statues to him and kissing his feet. The hypocrisy we have seen from the day Obama got in office and Republicans said they were making it there job to get him out is unprecedented as with Regan and Bush, democrats at least start off by trying to find common ground with newly elected presidents. But at this stage, where Obama entered the fray with Iraq and the rest of the MidEast, to assail him on anything besides his misguided ideas about Israel is just plan stupidity and sour grapes.
Bush even notes in his book Decision Points that he should have been more cautious of the mission accomplished declaration. If I recall, he claims the sign on th aircraft carrier was not his own doing but that he should have been more aware of his surroundings during that infamous speech. Meanwhile, Obama, as we know has not been quick to learn the lessons of the past 10 yrs. since 9/11.
I'll stick with Pipes on this one...President Obama gets a lot more wrong in the MidEast than just Israel. He has utterly failed to provide leadership againsst the jihadi threat.
Getting Gaddafi? Useless. Had Bush made the same misjudgement, I would have opposed it.
Bin Laden...yes, he get's credit for that and a few other cool drone attacks.
But his utter failure to lead on Iran will define his presidency...
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